Elon Asks: What Happened? Where Are They?
Overall Thesis
Tesla dominates the EV market globally with the Model Y outselling all competitors combined in the US and commanding premium pricing in China despite intense competition.
Narratives
Tesla is absolutely dominating the EV market globally, outselling all other EV makers combined in the US and being the #1 selling vehicle of any kind in China despite premium pricing. The YouTuber believes Tesla's manufacturing scale and profitability advantages make them untouchable, with FSD autonomy representing the next major growth driver.
Key Arguments
- Tesla outsold entire US EV industry combined by over 18,000 vehicles in Q1 2026
- Model Y is #1 selling vehicle in China at 4x the price of competitors
- Tesla is the only EV manufacturer selling at scale profitably
- FSD approval in Netherlands shows autonomy technology advancing globally
- Competition has failed to materialize as 'Tesla killers' predicted by legacy press
Predictions (1)
Rivian is struggling significantly in the EV pickup market with very low sales volumes. The YouTuber sees Rivian as unable to compete with Tesla's scale and profitability, suggesting they should exit the vehicle business entirely.
Key Arguments
- Rivian R1T sold only 1,658 units in Q1 2026, being outsold 2:1 by Cybertruck
- Rivian R1S ranked as first EV startup in top 10 but only sold 5,400+ units
- Company cannot achieve profitability at scale like Tesla
Predictions (1)
Ford's EV efforts are failing with the F-150 Lightning being discontinued and poor sales performance. The YouTuber sees traditional ICE manufacturers as 'cooked' and unable to compete in the EV transition.
Key Arguments
- F-150 Lightning has been discontinued with only 2,000+ units sold in Q1
- Ford's Mustang Mach-E ranked #8 with only 4,600 units
- Traditional ICE manufacturers described as 'cooked'
Predictions (1)
GM is part of the group of traditional automakers that failed to challenge Tesla's EV dominance. The YouTuber lumps GM with other legacy manufacturers as being unable to compete effectively in the EV market.
Key Arguments
- GM mentioned as one of the companies that 'couldn't beat Tesla's single quarter numbers'
- Part of legacy manufacturers described as 'cooked'
Hedges & Caveats
- Cybertruck sales down 45% year-over-year
- EV pickup truck market described as 'very challenging' in the US
- Analysis based on Q1 2026 data with limited forward-looking statements