Behind the video
Tesla Teases New Features, China Records, Thailand Interest
Overall Thesis
This is a daily Tesla news roundup covering a Bernstein analyst's bearish short thesis for 2024, which the host critiques as insufficient analysis. The episode also covers new software features, record China production/sales figures, Thailand's interest in Tesla investment, Model Y's US sales milestone, a new financing pre-qualification tool, and Cybertruck reviewer reactions.
Narratives
TSLATeslaThe host critiques a Bernstein analyst's bearish short thesis on Tesla for 2024 as lacking substantive reasoning, while highlighting several positive developments including record Giga Shanghai production figures (pending confirmation), strong China sales, Model Y's rise to second best-selling vehicle in the US, and new software features. No explicit directional price call is made by the host himself.
Key Arguments
- Bernstein's bearish call relies on 2023 estimate misses without addressing what will be different in 2024 (new interest rate environment, Highland ramp, Cybertruck launch)
- Reported Giga Shanghai November production of ~9,800 vehicles/day would be a record for both overall output and Model 3 production, pending confirmation
- Model 3 Highland and Model Y selling at higher average selling prices than prior Model 3 in Q3
- China retail sales rose significantly month-over-month; Model Y standard range sold out for the year
- Model Y surpassed Toyota RAV4 to become second best-selling vehicle in the US behind the Ford F-150
- Thailand's prime minister met with Tesla executives regarding potential land/investment, signaling possible expansion
- New upcoming software features (high-fidelity park assist, improved visualizations) seen as building blocks toward future robotaxi functionality
- New Tesla financing pre-qualification tool should smooth the purchase process
Risks acknowledged
- Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi reiterated Tesla short as Bernstein's best idea for 2024, citing nearly 40% downside and a $150 price target
- 2023 EPS came in 50% below consensus estimates at the start of the year
- Production numbers for November have not yet been independently verified by the host
- FSD version 12, tied to several promised features, has been delayed to mid-to-late January at the earliest
Hedges & Caveats
- Host notes he hasn't verified the production numbers yet and is waiting for confirmation
- Host says things being different in 2024 doesn't mean they will come to fruition
- FSD version 12 timing (mid to late January) could change further