Behind the video
📉 Lucid & Steel Tariffs: Will This Bring Down the Stock? | When I'm Buying Next
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentMixedStrength: 40%
Overall Thesis
Trump's 50% steel tariff increase should not directly affect Lucid (US-sourced steel) but will likely cause indirect manipulation and potential supply chain disruptions, and the speaker plans to buy in the $1.80–$1.90 range.
Narratives
LCIDLucid MotorsThe 50% steel tariff increase is unlikely to directly hurt Lucid since Mark previously indicated locally-sourced steel, but manipulation by shorts and potential supply competition from larger automakers are indirect risks. The speaker plans to buy in the $1.80–$1.90 range and warns that breaking below $2 will trigger reverse stock split fears.
Key Arguments
- Mark previously stated steel tariffs at 25% would not affect Lucid — implying local sourcing
- Indirect manipulation risk: shorts will use tariff headline to push stock down
- Lucid primarily uses aluminum not steel — reducing direct tariff exposure further
- Supply competition risk: larger automakers will get priority over Lucid for limited steel
- A dilution issuance likely in Q3 tail end could push stock to $1.80–$1.90 range
Risks acknowledged
- Mark may not be 100% accurate about complete insulation from steel tariffs
- Trump could reverse or reduce the tariff quickly — it may not stick
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $18.50
expiredDetails
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