Can Tesla Hit $600B in profits in 2030? SpaceX?
Overall Thesis
SpaceX's AI compute business is poised for explosive growth with $100B+ revenue potential by year-end, while Tesla faces questions about why it isn't pursuing similar data center opportunities.
Narratives
Both hosts see Tesla's future value tied almost entirely to Optimus (robots) and Robotaxi, believing the stock has been trading on unfulfilled promises and discouragement cycles rather than current profits. They agree Wall Street needs to see real revenue/profit from these programs before a sustained re-rating occurs, though they differ on how soon that excitement could show up in the price.
Key Arguments
- Elon decided to discontinue Model S/X production to focus on the robot line, which Randy views as evidence Tesla has a minimum viable product for Optimus.
- Randy believes Optimus could be 90% of Tesla's business by 2030, mirroring SpaceX's data-center dominance.
- Brad argues robo taxi and Optimus excitement could cause temporary stock pops but won't sustain without visible revenue/profit growth.
- Randy frames Tesla's stock history as cycles of robo-taxi promise followed by discouragement and 'trickling down,' now potentially 'trickling up' again.
Brad is highly bullish on SpaceX due to explosive compute/AI revenue growth from its XAI acquisition, citing plans for multiple gigawatts of compute capacity generating tens of billions in run-rate revenue. As a private company, no tradable stock predictions are made, but the hosts view its growth trajectory as far ahead of Tesla's currently visible revenue story.
Key Arguments
- Elon discussed SpaceX/XAI targeting $100 billion run-rate revenue by year end, driven mostly by compute rather than Starlink.
- Three gigawatts of compute could generate $150 billion/year, with plans to reach five gigawatts (adding another $250 billion) next year.
- SpaceX is described as potentially becoming 'worth more than the rest of Earth combined' per Elon's comments cited by Brad.
- Randy speculates both Tesla and SpaceX could reach roughly equal $1 trillion/year revenue with 80% margins by 2030, driven by Optimus and data centers respectively.
Hedges & Caveats
- SpaceX compute revenue projections are based on Elon's stated targets and customer demand assumptions
- Anthropic IPO valuation and compute demand are speculative
- Tesla's profit trajectory to $600B by 2030 is presented as a question, not a confirmed prediction
- Host acknowledges uncertainty around execution of three gigawatt compute deployment