TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$500
“So, if we actually have row taxis on the ground, you know, at that level, at some level, whatever that tipping point is, I have to believe we're back to 500.”
Thesis at the time
BullishBoth hosts see Tesla's future value tied almost entirely to Optimus (robots) and Robotaxi, believing the stock has been trading on unfulfilled promises and discouragement cycles rather than current profits. They agree Wall Street needs to see real revenue/profit from these programs before a sustained re-rating occurs, though they differ on how soon that excitement could show up in the price.
Key arguments
- Elon decided to discontinue Model S/X production to focus on the robot line, which Randy views as evidence Tesla has a minimum viable product for Optimus.
- Randy believes Optimus could be 90% of Tesla's business by 2030, mirroring SpaceX's data-center dominance.
- Brad argues robo taxi and Optimus excitement could cause temporary stock pops but won't sustain without visible revenue/profit growth.
- Randy frames Tesla's stock history as cycles of robo-taxi promise followed by discouragement and 'trickling down,' now potentially 'trickling up' again.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Brad thinks Wall Street won't reward Tesla meaningfully until robo taxi and Optimus actually generate revenue and profit.
- Robo taxi economics may be much smaller in scale than Tesla bulls hope, even at 100,000 units.
- Optimus hand/tendon durability and training complexity could slow rollout.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- SpaceX compute revenue projections are based on Elon's stated targets and customer demand assumptions
- Anthropic IPO valuation and compute demand are speculative
- Tesla's profit trajectory to $600B by 2030 is presented as a question, not a confirmed prediction
- Host acknowledges uncertainty around execution of three gigawatt compute deployment
The call
- Date said
- Aug 13, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$121.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Personal conviction language ('I have to believe') is offset by conditional framing on robo taxi deployment and an unspecified 'tipping point'.
Source
Can Tesla Hit $600B in profits in 2030? SpaceX?
Said on Aug 13, 2026Open on YouTube ↗