Behind the video
Waymo Is Growing Like Crazy! 📈
Overall Thesis
Waymo has scaled dramatically to 500,000 rides per week and a roughly $500M annual revenue run-rate, cementing its current lead in the robotaxi race and justifying its $126B valuation. The host, a long-term Tesla investor, argues Tesla could eventually close the gap via vehicle manufacturing vertical integration and the upcoming Cybercab, though he concedes Waymo is dominating from a consumer perspective today.
Narratives
TSLATeslaThe host remains a long-term Tesla investor, arguing that Tesla's in-house vehicle manufacturing and upcoming low-cost Cybercab could eventually let it undercut Waymo's pricing and scale robotaxi service faster than its current fleet size suggests. He acknowledges Waymo currently leads in both scale and consumer experience, with Tesla's robotaxi app held back by regulatory caution and a smaller, harder-to-book fleet.
Key Arguments
- Tesla manufactures its own vehicles (2 million cars/year) while Waymo depends on third-party automakers like Jaguar and Zeekr, creating a potential cost and supply advantage
- A sub-$25,000 Cybercab could let Tesla offer rides at roughly half Waymo's price point
- Tesla has significantly scaled robotaxi vehicle counts in the Bay Area and Austin this quarter
- Personal Tesla ownership acts as marketing, letting owners experience 'their own Waymo' already
Risks acknowledged
- Waymo is currently dominating in consumer-facing scale and experience, hitting 500,000 rides/week versus a few thousand for Tesla
- Tesla's robotaxi app had longer wait times and prices not meaingfully better than Uber
- Regulatory hurdles, safety drivers, and operational iteration remain unresolved challenges for Tesla's rollout
- Tesla's Austin fleet growth has recently flatlined
Hedges & Caveats
- Host guesses Tesla could surpass Waymo in rides per week by 'late 2027' but frames this as speculative
- Cybercab production timing and ramp-up are unproven
- Waymo IPO timing is unknown; host is only guessing it will eventually happen
- Uncertain whether Tesla's vertical integration cost advantage will materialize as expected