They Don't Come Any Bigger than This
Overall Thesis
Market commentary covering Tesla's dominance in Japan, positive analyst price targets for Tesla through 2030, Trump's executive order on US power grid security, and Nvidia's revenue growth expectations.
Narratives
Randy highlights Tesla Model Y's new sales record in Japan and frames it as part of a broader pattern of international growth already seen in South Korea and Taiwan. He also relays (without endorsing seriously) a set of long-range analyst price targets and a possible tariff-related tailwind from a new executive order affecting foreign grid equipment.
Key Arguments
- Model Y topped Japan's foreign brand vehicle rankings for the first half of 2026, a first for the model
- Tesla has shown similar international growth patterns in South Korea and Taiwan
- A new Trump executive order targeting foreign-made bulk power equipment could favor Tesla since its transformer suppliers (e.g. South Korea) are not on the sanctioned list
Predictions (1)
Randy relays a MarketWatch/analyst discussion suggesting Nvidia's ~70% revenue growth forecast next fiscal year may be heavily tied to SpaceX's data center chip purchases, though other hyperscalers and demand sources are also large contributors. He notes analyst caution about customer concentration but ultimately repeats the view that Nvidia's demand outstrips its supply.
Key Arguments
- SpaceX plans to deploy close to 10 gigawatts of computing power by end of next calendar year, increasingly tied to Nvidia's growth
- Nvidia owns $21 billion of SpaceX stock and SpaceX now accounts for about 5% of Nvidia's data center revenue, up from 3%
- Analysts caution against over-concentration on one customer, though hyperscalers overall drove $49B of $89B in data center revenue last quarter
- Nvidia's revenue forecast assumes zero dollars from China
Hedges & Caveats
- Price targets from 247 are presented as analyst projections, not guarantees
- Transcript cuts off mid-sentence regarding Nvidia details
- Commentary includes speculation about AI model political alignment and competitor positioning
- Executive order implementation details pending Department of Energy finalization within 120 days