Behind the video
Why Tomorrow Is PIVOTAL for Tesla, Micron And The Market
Overall Thesis
Despite severe short-term semiconductor sector crashes driven by Korean margin calls, fundamental demand for AI chips (especially HBM) remains incredibly bullish, signaling a market bottom is near.
Narratives
NVDANvidiaJoe sees Nvidia as ridiculously cheap on a forward PE basis, near 10-year lows, with demand so strong the company is reportedly sold out of capacity through 2029.
Key Arguments
- Sold out of capacity all the way to 2029 per Elon's comments cited
- Forward PE near 10-year lows despite AI boom
Predictions (1)
"Nvidia ridiculously cheap"
MUMicron TechnologyJoe views Micron's sell-off as irrational given surging DRAM/HBM demand that is expected to outstrip supply well into 2028, and believes the stock trades at an absurdly cheap valuation relative to its earnings power. He holds Micron as his biggest personal position and plans to keep it through upcoming Fed and earnings catalysts.
Key Arguments
- New 2027 DRAM data shows HBM demand absorbing new supply, worsening industry sufficiency ratio
- Micron trades at roughly a 4x forward P/E, implying it could earn back nearly half its market cap in two years
- Chinese peer CXMT's $500B valuation implies Micron, with far more scale, is undervalued
Risks acknowledged
- Cycle top concerns among traders who sell high-PE cyclicals expecting a peak
- Entire semiconductor sector (SOX) trading below 50-day moving averages amid panic
Predictions (3)
"I'm holding my by I think Micron's is just absolutely ridiculously low here"
"the earnings will go up massively next year guaranteed"
"I told you yesterday I need this thing to be above 850 to make money this week."
TSLATeslaJoe considers Tesla a 'ridiculous buy' long-term, citing Optimus progress and unpriced optionality in robotics, even though the stock has stagnated for years. He believes any robotaxi/Cybercab delay is inconsequential to the broader thesis.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is on track with Optimus execution
- Enormous optionality in robotics not reflected in the stock price
- Stock hasn't moved much for years despite substantial progress
Risks acknowledged
- Cybercab/robotaxi rollout may slip to Q1 instead of Q4
Predictions (1)
"don't get me started on Tesla. I just had a conversation with Herbert. I mean Tesla is a total ridiculous buy because they are on track with Optimus."
Hedges & Caveats
- Acknowledges current brutal losses in semiconductor positions
- Notes personal trading is private and not through managed portfolios currently
- Recognizes extreme market volatility and crash conditions
- References Jim Cramer's contrarian indicator (dot-com bubble comparison) as a potential bottom signal
- Admits uncertainty about near-term price recovery despite bullish fundamentals