Behind the video
F**K: "Restarting Strikes"
Overall Thesis
Renewed Iran strike risks and elevated oil prices are weighing on equities, but the host believes a near-term diplomatic deal remains likely and favors buying QQQ dips. His outlook becomes more bearish if the negotiation window closes after the election, while falling Treasury yields support his discussion of a TLT bottom.
Narratives
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustThe host favors buying dips in the Q's between 700 and 707, supported by his expectation of an Iran deal. He acknowledges rising downside risk if negotiations fail; these levels are proposed entries, not upside price targets.
Key Arguments
- The host identifies 700–707 as his preferred dip-buying area.
- He assigns a 95% probability to a deal during his initial negotiation window.
- He interprets aggressive military rhetoric as posturing that can precede agreement.
- He reports that the Q's have already rejected 715 and reached the vicinity of his entry level.
Risks acknowledged
- Higher oil prices and inflation fears are pressuring equities.
- AI financing concerns are contributing to market weakness.
- A return to attacks could worsen the selloff.
- He expects the deal window to deteriorate after the election and describes a possible bearish winter.
Predictions (1)
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFThe host describes TLT as bottoming near a strong weekly support line around 78.77 and trading above that level around 81.25. He presents falling Treasury yields as supportive, without making a separate explicit forward return forecast for TLT.
Key Arguments
- Identifies a strong weekly support line around 78.77.
- Reports TLT trading around 81.25.
- Explains that TLT rises as Treasury yields decline.
- Reports a substantial daily decline in the ten-year yield despite geopolitical tensions.
Risks acknowledged
- Geopolitical escalation and elevated oil prices are creating broader market stress.
The host argues that gold is struggling despite war fears because monetary support is absent. He makes its renewed upside dependent on a change in Federal Reserve leadership.
Key Arguments
- Observes gold falling alongside equities.
- Argues that withdrawing monetary stimulus makes gold appreciation difficult.
- Suggests investors are selling gold to purchase other assets, potentially including TLT.
Risks acknowledged
- Acknowledges the usual expectation that gold would rise during war or equity weakness.
Predictions (1)
The host reports Brent at a five-month high around $111 per barrel as threats against regional energy infrastructure intensify. He treats expensive oil as a headwind for airlines and equities, without issuing a forward Brent price call.
Key Arguments
- Reports Brent around $111 per barrel.
- Connects rising oil prices to threats against oil infrastructure and shipping.
- Argues that high oil prices hurt airlines and increase inflation concerns.
- Suggests oil spikes can pressure Trump to retreat from escalation.
Risks acknowledged
- The host expects a diplomatic deal that could change the geopolitical backdrop.
Hedges & Caveats
- The host explicitly acknowledges that his confident expectation of an Iran deal could be wrong.
- His estimated deal probability declines after October 29 and again after the November 3 election.
- He discourages using margin in the current environment.
- He says his trading setups are imperfect and are not a crystal ball.
- He states that the discussion is not personalized financial advice.