Tesla Stock's September Correction just STARTED!?
Overall Thesis
A September market correction may be beginning due to geopolitical tensions (Iran-US conflict), rising bond yields from yen carry trade unwinding, and elevated oil prices, with Tesla potentially declining to $200 if correction deepens.
Narratives
The host believes Tesla could see near-term downside to around $300 if the Fed hikes rates and the broader market corrects, but remains structurally bullish long-term and sees any pullback as a buying opportunity. He frames Tesla as a top candidate to receive capital if a September correction occurs.
Key Arguments
- Tesla has a beta over two, so it should fall more than the NASDAQ in a broader correction.
- Tesla recently found support around $297-$300 about a month ago.
- A Fed rate hike combined with an unresolved Iran conflict could trigger a market-wide correction.
The host thinks AppLovin is dramatically undervalued relative to its growth, calling its fair value well above its current trading price. He plans to buy the stock on any market-wide fear-driven dip.
Key Arguments
- PEG ratio of 0.5 versus peers like ELF at 2.5.
- Trades at a 15x PE multiple despite ~54% revenue growth and ~80% earnings growth.
Predictions (1)
The host believes Zebra will eventually be recognized by Wall Street as a genuine AI company that brings AI hardware into real-world industries like healthcare, logistics, and retail. He expects the stock to be rerated higher over time and would buy more on a pullback.
Key Arguments
- Trades at 18x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.6.
- Dominant market leader in handheld devices that function as AI computing nodes.
- Already had a blowout earnings report that started to reveal its AI positioning.
Predictions (1)
The host is personally long Rubrik and considers it a very strong AI cybersecurity company that would be an attractive buy on further weakness. He views a pullback into the $50-70 range as easy money.
Key Arguments
- Described as a very strong AI cybersecurity company.
- Host holds a personal long position.
Predictions (1)
The host views Royal Caribbean as a cheap, dividend-paying compounder that he expects to outperform the S&P 500 over the long run, especially if oil prices climb further amid the Iran conflict. He would be an easy buyer on a correction.
Key Arguments
- Pays over 2% dividend yield ($6 per share annually).
- Considered dirt cheap and an easy long-term compounder.
Predictions (1)
The host would view a pullback in Uber shares into the low $60s or $50s as an attractive buying opportunity but does not commit to a firm directional call absent a market correction.
Key Arguments
- Currently trading around $75 a share.
- Considered an opportunity if it falls into the low 60s or 50s during a correction.
The host finds Reddit interesting at an important technical level and would consider buying if the stock corrects, but does not currently own it and offers no firm price target or timeframe.
Key Arguments
- Currently sitting at what the host calls an important level.
The host has been bullish on Zeta Global for a long time and previously bought shares in the $16-18 range, but is less interested at the current higher price after a strong run-up. He would consider buying again only if the stock pulls back into the low 20s.
Key Arguments
- Long-time bullish thesis with prior purchases at $16-18.
- Stock has gone 'vertical' to around $31.
The host notes that oil prices have risen due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which is pressuring the Fed toward a more hawkish stance. He does not give a firm price prediction but frames further oil strength as a key macro risk to watch.
Key Arguments
- Oil was up about 5% on the day amid escalating US-Iran conflict.
- Elevated oil prices are increasing the odds of a Fed rate hike.
Hedges & Caveats
- Uncertainty around US/Trump military response to Iran
- Conditional prediction: Tesla price targets dependent on whether correction materializes
- Multiple macro factors at play (bond yields, inflation, Fed policy)
- Consumer spending not yet recessionary despite headwinds