Behind the video
My Top Stock to Buy in November
Overall Thesis
The host views Uber as an overlooked investment whose low earnings and free cash flow multiples fail to reflect its growing network and autonomous mobility opportunities. He expects business compounding and eventual valuation expansion to support the investment, favoring Uber's partnership approach over the view that autonomy will disrupt its platform.
Narratives
GOOGLAlphabetThe host discloses owning Alphabet and expresses optimism about its Waymo business. His remarks concern Waymo's business prospects and do not establish a separate forecast for Alphabet shares.
Key Arguments
- Waymo is identified as a major autonomous driving competitor.
- The host expects Waymo to become a phenomenal business.
UBERUber TechnologiesUber's valuation looks compelling to the host alongside growing trips, customers, bookings and free cash flow. He endorses owning the stock and sees potential for valuation expansion as investors recognize the benefits of its autonomous vehicle partnerships and network effects.
Key Arguments
- The host cites roughly 15 times trailing earnings and approximately 14 times free cash flow.
- Monthly active platform customers have grown at approximately 15% annually, with trips growing faster.
- Trailing annual free cash flow exceeds $10 billion against a cited $137 billion market capitalization.
- Revenue recognition changes explain some apparent growth deceleration without indicating comparable weakness in gross bookings.
- Multiple autonomous technology and operating partners could commoditize vehicle supply while preserving Uber's demand aggregation role.
- Costco delivery illustrates the platform's ability to connect additional suppliers and customers.
- Revenue compounding, margin expansion and higher valuation multiples could work together.
Risks acknowledged
- Investors fear that Waymo and Tesla will take market share.
- Uber's stock has declined despite improving business fundamentals.
- The timing of investor recognition remains uncertain.
TSLATeslaThe host doubts that Tesla's vision-only autonomous driving approach will expand as quickly as investors expect. This is an operational assessment of a competitor to Uber, with no stated direction for Tesla shares.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is launching and expanding autonomous driving services.
- The host views its vision-only approach as a constraint on expansion speed.
Risks acknowledged
- Tesla remains one of the major autonomous competitors investors believe could take Uber's market share.
Hedges & Caveats
- The timing of a sentiment change is uncertain; the host mentions late 2026 or 2027 without committing to either.
- A doubling of valuation multiples over ten years is presented as a possibility.
- Autonomous competitors could take market share, although the host believes Uber's partnerships mitigate this threat.
- Revenue recognition changes complicate comparisons of reported revenue growth.