Behind the video
SPACEX IPO 🚨 I FEEL ROBBED 😡 SPCX STOCK PRICE PREDICTION
Overall Thesis
The host expects another near-term SpaceX rally and potential upside from future index-related buying, but anticipates selling pressure around August lockup releases. He is frustrated by his small IPO allocation, remains enthusiastic about SpaceX's business opportunities, and recommends Alphabet as a long-term investment.
Narratives
The host has switched his EchoStar exposure from shares to options and expects a rebound to produce a gain. He frames the trade as risky and provides no price target or clear timing.
Key Arguments
- He holds options in anticipation of a bounce.
- He expects the options position to generate a more attractive gain than owning shares if the rebound occurs.
Risks acknowledged
- The options position involves risk.
- The gain depends on the anticipated bounce occurring.
Predictions (1)
SPCXSpaceXThe host expects a further short-term rally after the IPO and sees another upside opportunity from prospective index inclusion. He anticipates substantial selling pressure around August lockup releases, while arguing that reusable launches and space-based computing create major long-term business opportunities.
Key Arguments
- Strong retail demand, limited initial float, and institutional participation supported the IPO setup.
- The host expects the initial IPO momentum to produce another attempt at the recent highs.
- He believes potential August unlocks could release nearly nine times the initial IPO share supply.
- Prospective index inclusion could force tracking funds to buy shares.
- Reusable rockets and solar-powered computing in space could create cost advantages over terrestrial competitors.
- He predicts a future combination of Musk's companies, with an announcement in 2027 and completion by 2028; this is a corporate-structure forecast rather than a separate share-price prediction.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock could decline instead of rallying next week.
- The host explicitly says he would not be surprised by a move below 157.
- The anticipated index inclusion timing is uncertain and requires further research.
- Lockup sales and additional eligible supply could undermine the limited-float setup.
- Space computing advantages require production scale and regulatory approval.
GOOGLAlphabetThe host recommends Alphabet as one of the best stocks to buy and intends to hold it indefinitely. He particularly values its investment exposure to SpaceX and Anthropic.
Key Arguments
- Alphabet's investments provide exposure to SpaceX and Anthropic.
- The host considers Alphabet a high-quality company.
- He owns shares and expresses an indefinite holding intention.
Risks acknowledged
- Alphabet's immediate performance around the SpaceX IPO barely exceeded the market despite its ownership exposure.
Predictions (1)
TSLATeslaThe host regards Tesla as part of a potentially dominant collection of Musk-controlled businesses. He predicts that Tesla and SpaceX shareholders will eventually own the same combined company, but supplies no independent Tesla share-price or investment-return forecast.
Key Arguments
- He expects Musk's companies to combine, with an announcement in 2027 and completion by 2028.
- He believes the combined business could become the world's largest company.
- Tesla is presented as a successful business alongside SpaceX.
Hedges & Caveats
- The expected Monday rally may not happen; the host would not be shocked by a decline below 157.
- The Monday and Tuesday outlook is tentative, with no guaranteed timing or outcome.
- The host is uncertain about index inclusion rules and says he needs to verify the timing.
- Potential August share sales depend on lockup provisions, earnings releases, and price-related conditions.
- The EchoStar options position involves risk and depends on obtaining the anticipated bounce.
- Space-based computing expansion depends on mass production and regulatory clearance.