Behind the video
Why I Am BULLISH Again On SpaceX Stock
Overall Thesis
The host is switching SpaceX exposure from short calls to bullish short puts as recent unlock selling appears absorbed, while planning further tactical shorts around future unlocks. He remains extremely bullish on SpaceX across several horizons and on Tesla into year-end, but expects possible macro-driven setbacks before recovery.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceXThe host expects AI compute infrastructure and eventual orbital computing to support exceptional long-term SpaceX investment returns. He combines that conviction with bullish short puts between unlocks and brief bearish trades around mechanical share selling.
Key Arguments
- He believes upcoming unlocks produce predictable selling pressure when shares are sufficiently above the IPO price.
- The stock is holding up despite continuing selling, suggesting strong underlying demand.
- Terrestrial compute expansion and anticipated contracts underpin his near-term and 12–18-month bullish views.
- Reusable Starship and orbital computing underpin his multiyear thesis.
- He endorses the possibility of quadrillion-dollar market capitalization over a much longer horizon.
Risks acknowledged
- Macro weakness could overwhelm company-specific catalysts.
- Unlock selling can suppress an otherwise bullish stock.
- Shorting is hazardous because unexpected positive announcements can cause sharp gains.
- The next unlock is smaller and earnings are approaching.
- Telecommunications competition will be harder than some investors expect.
- He considers multiple orders of magnitude above the current world economy an exaggeration.
Predictions (8)
TSLATeslaThe host expects accelerating Cybercap deployment to force Tesla shares above $500 and remains heavily exposed to the stock. He anticipates all-time highs during 2026 while acknowledging possible interim technical weakness and macro-driven declines.
Key Arguments
- Rapid Cybercap deployment is not yet reflected in the share price.
- Passing roughly 1,000–2,000 deployed vehicles is described as a forcing function for repricing.
- Tesla remains his major investment bet and core holding.
- He regards core AI equities as beneficiaries of a real technological transition.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has repeatedly disappointed despite favorable fundamentals.
- Seasonal volatility and renewed AI-bubble concerns could cause a near-term drawdown.
- Trading near $380 is described as technically vulnerable.
- Leveraged positions may require rapid exits during a broad correction.
Predictions (4)
NVDANvidiaThe host includes Nvidia among core AI stocks expected to benefit substantially from the technological transition. He rejects the view that this group's investment gains are simply a speculative bubble.
Key Arguments
- He expects substantial net stock gains from core AI exposure.
- He regards major technology companies' investment decisions as economically grounded.
Risks acknowledged
- Bubble fears can still cause temporary market corrections.
- Some startups may experience overinvestment even if the broader technology thesis succeeds.
Predictions (1)
The host expects renewed AI-bubble fears to produce a potentially meaningful S&P 500 correction. He views such a decline as temporary and expects a sharp recovery because he rejects the underlying bubble thesis.
Key Arguments
- He considers neutral sentiment relatively optimistic in the prevailing market.
- He believes renewed bubble narratives can cause selling despite healthy AI fundamentals.
- He distinguishes temporary sentiment-driven corrections from a lasting investment collapse.
Risks acknowledged
- His macro timing concerns are based mainly on gut feeling.
- He does not consider the current AI investment cycle a genuine bubble.
- The proposed decline magnitude is a scenario rather than a precise forecast.
MUMicron TechnologyThe host includes Micron in his bullish long-term AI-stock thesis but reports losing money on a trade. He praises its fundamentals and buybacks while saying its stock behavior is too erratic for him to trade effectively.
Key Arguments
- Micron is named among core AI beneficiaries expected to generate substantial stock gains.
- He describes the fundamentals as beautiful and notes a large buyback program.
- He sees a difficult mix of conservative cyclical investors and speculative traders.
Risks acknowledged
- His recent Micron trade lost money.
- He says he lacks control over the stock's trading behavior.
- Strong fundamentals have not produced a manageable tactical trade.
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Macro caution rests substantially on gut feeling rather than evidence.
- SpaceX unlock selling is expected primarily when shares trade significantly above the stated $135 IPO price.
- The current SpaceX trade bets on support holding rather than requiring an immediate price rise.
- He intends to exit tactical positions if the broader market weakens while retaining his core Tesla position.
- The next smaller unlock and proximity to earnings make the next short less attractive.
- Long-term SpaceX valuation expectations depend on continued execution.
- The discussion of surviving a 50% Tesla drawdown is margin risk education, explicitly not an expected outcome.
- He acknowledges that comparing company market capitalization with global GDP is problematic.