Behind the video
The Craziest Thing You've EVER Seen: Wild SpaceX Feat
Overall Thesis
SpaceX and Tesla are making exceptional technical progress despite recent stock price declines, with Starship achieving successful reusable flight milestones and Tesla's FSD demonstrating significant safety improvements over human drivers.
Narratives
TSLATeslaThe speaker argues Tesla's FSD supervised software is progressing rapidly, citing strong European safety data and rising robotaxi deployment in Austin as evidence the company is close to solving autonomy. He believes this will drive significant high-margin FSD subscription revenue growth over time, even though the pace has been slower than his prior expectations.
Key Arguments
- FSD supervised was 5.2x safer than manual driving across 65 million km in five EU countries
- Q2 FSD attach rate on new US vehicles sold exceeded 55%
- FSD subscriptions are close to 100% profit since the hardware is already installed
- Robotaxi fleet in Austin grew to 55 unsupervised vehicles with high utilization on a record day
Risks acknowledged
- Robotaxi/autonomy rollout has been slower than the speaker previously expected, by his own admission over 6 months behind his earlier estimate
Predictions (1)
"FSD revenue for Tesla is going to continue to increase meaningfully over time as FSD supervised is approved and released in more countries around the world."
The speaker is highly bullish on SpaceX, pointing to a successful Starship test flight, progress toward rapid reusability, and rapid AI product rollouts (Grok Build, Cursor integration) under the SpaceX AI umbrella as signs of enormous long-term value creation. He dismisses recent stock price weakness since IPO as driven by short-term skepticism rather than fundamentals.
Key Arguments
- Starship's 13th test flight achieved an intact splashdown and recovery, signaling progress toward reusability
- Reusable Starships would unlock much greater Starlink bandwidth and enable orbital AI data centers
- Grok Build's new graphical interface removes technical barriers, expected to massively increase usage
- Cursor (owned by SpaceX AI) integrated Kimi K3, showing rapid AI product expansion
Risks acknowledged
- Stock is down from its IPO allocation price and opening day price
Hedges & Caveats
- No specific price targets or directional predictions provided in transcript
- Commentary focuses on technical progress rather than financial forecasts
- Stock prices mentioned as currently down from IPO and recent highs
- Discussion of future potential (Starlink growth, orbital AI, autonomy) is speculative but not framed as a specific prediction