Behind the video
THIS is my Tesla stock MONTH BY MONTH fair value model - PAY ATTENTION!
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Jo walks through his updated Tesla DCF-based fair value model, arguing the fair value share price at end of 2025 is $611 and $11,000 by 2030, driven by core EV, robotaxi fleet, and Optimus humanoid robots, with the current $305 price representing a heavy discount.
Narratives
TSLATeslaTesla's discounted cash flow model values shares at $611 fair value end-of-2025 and $11,000 by 2030, with current price deeply discounted versus intrinsic value.
Key Arguments
- DCF model uses three revenue streams: core EV/energy, robotaxi fleet, and Optimus humanoid robots.
- Robotaxi assumes 500 in 2025, 10,000 in 2026 scaling to 220M by 2040.
- Optimus ramps to 100,000 units by 2027, 3M by 2030, with consumer pre-orders as kickstart.
- Robotaxi launch in June could force price to fair value by July/August 2025.
- Tesla should be $611 end of 2025 per fair value projection.
Risks acknowledged
- Demand skepticism on Optimus scale assumptions.
- Risk discount of 29-32% applied to robotaxi and Optimus streams.
- Delayed robotaxi launch could crash the stock to ~$250 before recovery.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $611end of 2025
Not scoredDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —