Behind the video
I F’d up‼️
Overall Thesis
The host sees Alphabet's selloff as a buying opportunity, Cheesecake Factory as a long-term hold, and AMD as a particularly attractive investment for 2027. He regrets retaining ServiceNow because expenses are outpacing growth, prefers Salesforce and Palantir, and expects short-term Salesforce weakness from the ServiceNow earnings reaction.
Narratives
CELHCelsius HoldingsThe host briefly contrasts Celsius's recent stock weakness with what he sees as substantial long-term investment upside. He provides no supporting valuation or operating detail in this video.
Key Arguments
- He explicitly describes the stock as having substantial long-term upside despite recent weakness.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock remains weak.
Predictions (1)
GOOGLAlphabetThe host considers Alphabet significantly undervalued after its earnings selloff and recommends buying dips for the long term. Strong cloud growth and operating profitability support his stance, although heavy capital expenditures constrain free cash flow.
Key Arguments
- Reported revenue growth of 25% and operating income growth of 30% indicate strong underlying performance.
- Cloud revenue more than doubled and cloud operating income more than tripled.
- He estimates a forward earnings multiple near 19 versus a historical median near 23.
- TPU sales and AI-driven search activity create additional growth opportunities.
- An investment-related accounting expense distorted reported net income and EPS.
Risks acknowledged
- Property and equipment spending is extremely large relative to net income.
- Free cash flow is deteriorating despite rising operating cash flow.
- The ultimate return on AI investment remains uncertain.
- A stock already down roughly 30% can decline further.
Predictions (1)
NOWServiceNowThe host regrets retaining ServiceNow through earnings and probably intends to sell his remaining position. His negative assessment concerns disappointing execution, elevated expectations, and superior alternatives; he explicitly leaves open that it could still be a good long-term stock.
Key Arguments
- A small adjusted EPS miss and approximately in-line subscription revenue guidance disappointed elevated expectations.
- Revenue growth of 21% failed to produce an upside surprise.
- Cost of revenue and operating expenses grew faster than gross profit.
- Operating income, net income, and diluted EPS declined substantially.
- He prefers Salesforce and Palantir as destinations for his capital.
Risks acknowledged
- Revenue is still growing more than 20%.
- His investment remains profitable despite the earnings selloff.
- He says the stock is not necessarily bad over the long term.
- The preference for other investments does not establish an absolute future decline.
CRMSalesforceThe host expects Salesforce shares to fall in the next session as ServiceNow's results weigh on related software stocks. He nevertheless prefers owning Salesforce because expectations are lower and he has greater confidence in its leadership.
Key Arguments
- ServiceNow's earnings reaction is expected to spill over into Salesforce.
- Lower expectations make Salesforce more attractive to him than ServiceNow.
- He expresses greater long-term confidence in Marc Benioff's leadership.
Risks acknowledged
- The near-term decline forecast is driven by sector sympathy rather than Salesforce's own newly reported results.
- His longer-term investment preference remains favorable.
Predictions (1)
CAKEThe Cheesecake FactoryThe host recommends holding Cheesecake Factory into the 2030s because strong results and expansion of Flower Child and North Italia create a clear long-term investment opportunity. He expects those concepts to improve the company's revenue mix and margins.
Key Arguments
- He grades the quarter A+ and cites revenue growth of 14% with much faster profit growth.
- Flower Child openings are expected to accelerate next year.
- Flower Child's margin contribution could materially improve company profitability by 2030.
- Expansion of established restaurant concepts provides a clear multiyear growth roadmap.
- Political discussion of the brand provides free publicity.
Risks acknowledged
- He would prefer more Flower Child openings than management currently anticipates.
- He says the opportunity is smaller than Starbucks' historical expansion opportunity.
- Shares fell despite the strong quarter.
Predictions (1)
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesThe host maintains a strong positive investment stance on AMD for 2027 and expects short-term selloffs to attract buyers. Hyperscaler spending tempers his expectations for an extraordinary near-term revenue surprise, while leaving room for margin or EPS upside.
Key Arguments
- He calls AMD the most exciting investment among companies around or above a trillion-dollar valuation for 2027.
- He expects unusually strong business growth relative to other companies of that scale.
- He anticipates continued demand for AI chips across multiple suppliers.
- He expects revenue and guidance beats, with potential additional upside from margins and EPS.
Risks acknowledged
- Hyperscaler capital expenditures do not appear far enough above expectations to support a shockingly strong revenue result.
- Near-term share-price direction around earnings remains uncertain.
- Google's TPUs and other chip suppliers also participate in AI spending.
PLTRPalantir TechnologiesThe host praises Palantir's execution and prefers owning it over ServiceNow. He presents it as an example of a software company translating AI demand into stronger operating results without comparable expense problems.
Key Arguments
- Management is delivering strong results rather than relying on promotional language.
- He views the company as benefiting meaningfully from the AI investment wave.
- He says its expenses are not outstripping revenue and gross profit in the way ServiceNow's are.
MSFTMicrosoftMicrosoft's cloud growth and capital spending serve as evidence for assessing AI infrastructure demand and AMD's upcoming results. The host attributes the capital expenditure shortfall versus expectations to delayed capacity deliveries, while acknowledging uncertainty about the affected suppliers.
Key Arguments
- He cites Azure revenue growth of 48% and total revenue growth of 19%.
- Capital expenditures and finance leases were below analyst expectations.
- Delayed third-party capacity deliveries may explain the spending shortfall.
- Microsoft maintains positive free cash flow despite infrastructure investment.
Risks acknowledged
- The identity of the delayed chip supplier is speculative.
- Lower-than-expected capital spending could initially concern investors in chip suppliers.
NFLXNetflixThe host notes his Netflix position is down and anticipates tax-loss selling by institutional holders late in the year. He does not explicitly forecast a future share-price decline or provide a target.
Key Arguments
- His public-account position is down almost 15%.
- He expects losing institutional holders to seek opportunities to sell for tax purposes in the final months of the year.
Hedges & Caveats
- Alphabet can fall further despite appearing undervalued, and the eventual return on its large AI capital expenditures remains uncertain.
- The ServiceNow exit reflects disappointing results and better perceived alternatives rather than an explicit forecast of long-term absolute downside.
- Hyperscaler spending does not support expecting an exceptionally strong AMD revenue surprise, although margins and earnings could still surprise.
- Microsoft's delayed capacity deliveries are not definitively attributable to any particular chip supplier.