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Tesla Supercharger debacle: the SECRET reasons why Elon did it

Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%

Overall Thesis

Bhakdi argues that Elon Musk's firing of the Tesla Supercharger team is strategically bullish rather than erratic. Tesla is transitioning from an EV sales company to a robotaxi/cyber cab fleet operator, and the existing supercharger business has accomplished its mission of establishing NACS as the standard. Future charging infrastructure will be fundamentally different warehouse-style hubs for the robot fleet, requiring a different approach.

Narratives

TSLATesla
Strongly Bullish

Tesla is in the midst of a transformation from EV sales company to robotaxi/cyber cab fleet operator, with margins expected to expand from $5-10K per car to $30-40K per car over lifetime. The supercharger team cut is a strategic move preparing for this transition.

Key Arguments

  • FSD is coming in 2024, enabling robotaxi transition
  • Robotaxi fleet scales: starts end of 2024, massive multi-million scale in 2026-2027
  • Margins move from $5-10K per car sold to $30-40K per car lifetime as fleet operator
  • Supercharger mission of establishing NACS standard is already won - BP investing $1B by 2030 building Tesla-standard superchargers
  • Supercharger business has decreasing margins and is distraction from core robotaxi focus
  • Future charging needs will be fewer, larger, fully-serviced hubs for robot fleet - totally different business
  • Elon cutting sclerosis ('Mission creep') after being distracted by X

Predictions (2)

Bullend of 2024
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Bull2027
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