TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“it's happening end of this year government approves are no problem”@ 9:45 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is in the midst of a transformation from EV sales company to robotaxi/cyber cab fleet operator, with margins expected to expand from $5-10K per car to $30-40K per car over lifetime. The supercharger team cut is a strategic move preparing for this transition.
Key arguments
- FSD is coming in 2024, enabling robotaxi transition
- Robotaxi fleet scales: starts end of 2024, massive multi-million scale in 2026-2027
- Margins move from $5-10K per car sold to $30-40K per car lifetime as fleet operator
- Supercharger mission of establishing NACS standard is already won - BP investing $1B by 2030 building Tesla-standard superchargers
- Supercharger business has decreasing margins and is distraction from core robotaxi focus
- Future charging needs will be fewer, larger, fully-serviced hubs for robot fleet - totally different business
- Elon cutting sclerosis ('Mission creep') after being distracted by X
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Wall Street analysts think firing was erratic and signals trouble
- Ross Gerber and others complain Elon was not paying attention to Tesla
- Conspiracy theorists say Tesla is going bankrupt
The call
- Date said
- May 24, 2024
- Timeframe
- end of 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $179.24
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses assertive language 'it's happening' and 'no problem'