Lucid Motors Sold 820 Cars in April — Bullish or Bearish?! 🚗📉 Shorts Return 2.81M Today!
Overall Thesis
Lucid's April 2025 US sales of 820 units means the company needs to more than double its monthly delivery pace to hit the 20K full-year production target, while the stock lagged a strong broad market day due to interest rate headwinds from stronger-than-expected jobs data.
Narratives
Lucid's estimated April US sales of 820 vehicles (815 Air + 5 Gravity) are modest and mathematically require a near-doubling of monthly pace for the 20K full-year target. The stock closed flat despite the market in FOMO mode, likely due to strong non-farm payroll data reducing rate-cut probability from 55% to 35% for June 18. Shorts returned 2.81M shares ahead of earnings (a bullish technical signal). The speaker sees the first confirmed US-China direct negotiations as a potential near-term positive.
Key Arguments
- April US sales of 820 units (815 Air + 5 Gravity) — pace needs to double+ to hit 20K target
- Strong non-farm payroll (177K vs 140K forecast) reduced June rate-cut odds from 55% to 35%
- Shorts returned 2.81M shares ahead of earnings — may signal caution rather than conviction
- US-China confirmed direct talks is a positive macro catalyst for risk assets
- Market makers will need to cover ~1.5M shares from in-the-money $2.50 calls Monday