Michael Tyler on SPY

“If you for whatever reason, if the problem gets worse and you don't find support at the 100-day moving average, you're going to pretty shortly thereafter fall to your 200-day moving average. That sits at $721 on the SPY.”

“All-time highs tend to precede additional all-time highs. So that's kind of the trend I think we're we're going in.”

“When we get the conclusion of the Iran war when the straight of moose opens, in other words, yes, the bull market is on. Face ripper rally confirmed.”

“if we don't get good news to follow through with the optimism out there in the air, if the UN General Assembly comes and goes, there's no deal to end the war or we begin striking Iran again, that's going to lead to a significant amount of downside at this point.”

“I wholeheartedly believe if the war with Iran does not end, the markets will eventually crash based on this.”

“If the war with Iran ends, the markets are going to skyrocket.”

“If if we don't get any good news tomorrow, stocks are probably going to fall tomorrow, right?”

“Because if the war with Iran does not end, the stock market will crash.”

“Once the Iran war does end and Trump walks away, stocks are going to rip. The broadening trade is going to come ripping, roaring back to life.”

“Until that happens, the markets are going to be under pressure and I don't like the risk-reward in the markets until that happens.”

“stocks probably go up initially, but over the next couple of days, you're going to fade that move.”

“you actually tend to bottom on September 30th and then you begin a 12 month rally or really like a 10-month vertical rally.”

“I think it is a massive opportunity and this really doesn't change anything about my 2027 thesis for the markets in which I'm expecting stocks to do very well.”

“this time around it might go up initially, but it's going to lead to problems because it's going to add even more restriction on the real economy.”

“So, next Wednesday, the stock market probably goes up if we get a Fed hike simply because at this point, we have sold the rumor.”

“This is why I am fundamentally very bullish on the stock market especially after the midterm election.”

“If the Iran war ends, no. September's going to be a really good month. And we're going to start the midterm rally early.”

“yeah, markets are probably going to decline 7 to 10% roughly.”

“You do tend to rally pretty vertically for about 9 to 10 months, starting in early October through about August of the following year.”

“I do think this could raise the probability of a correction in the month of September.”

“You're going to follow a pretty historical trend of rallying for about 9 to 10 months after the midterm elections.”

“I would expect upside for the index if the war with Iran ends and the straight up moose opens and CPI comes in low.”

“I think 10, 15, 20% upside is probably likely for the S&P.”

“the average return for the S&P one year later is over 30% higher.”

“after the midterms markets should be a lot stronger. His historically I mean, you basically go straight up after the midterms. You you you go up into the right for almost a year historically until like midsummer of 2027.”

“Don't be surprised if even you know, over the next couple of months, stocks actually begin to fall after the war with Iran ends.”

“You are overbought still on the S&P. I've talked about this for a while now. You're likely to consolidate for a bit before the next move higher. And that is exactly what is happening right now.”

“this has been one of the most aggressive rallies we've seen in a very long time. And whenever that tends to happen, a year later, you're up like 30%.”

“we could be looking at 30 plus percent upside throughout you know, the next year or so.”