Dave Lee on TSLA

“I think what could cause um a big re-rating is is is if Tesla released new cars”

“the cyber capab experience is a different product, different service category than ride hailing”

“I think this is going to be a huge hit. um it's a no-brainer”

“I think it's doing it right. They're going city by city... as the software gets better at the V15, I expect them to scale.”

“if they're able to execute on this well, meaning um they prove out their safety, they prove out their manufacturing, they they prove out uh their AI software, then this will can lead to basically the next era of high growth and a whole host of various types of vehicles all built upon, right, the same paradigm.”

“That's what I think Tesla's going to do and they're going to get back to ambitious goals of maybe 10, maybe up to 20 million vehicles a year in terms of production goals.”

“And I think, in my opinion, I think Tesla is going for high volume, that they will release more affordable consumer vehicles, but I think the path is very different than what most people are thinking.”

“it's you know probably I don't know maybe two to six months we'll see maybe um Tesla able to scale more as they get more confident with V15 on AI5 hardware.”

“AI4 and FSD V14, but I think with AI5, we're going to see this huge jump. Um, it's just going to bring it to a whole new level. Right now, FSD is amazing, but it's going to bring it probably to the next level, which is like beyond beyond human, right?”

“And once Tesla can get the network effects by having lots of cars in an area, drive up availability, drive down price, right, they've got the whole picture. They've got the best car, the best, you know, experience, the best price, the best availability.”

“And I think the Cyber Cap is going to set the next kind of 10 years of Tesla's manufacturing just like the Model Y really set up Tesla um you know for 10 years.”

“I think in 10 years, you know, it'll still be ahead of everything else because it's just so amazing.”

“these are going to be nextG cars that Tesla's going to release um I think you know hopefully within the next three to five years um and hopefully sooner”

“Now Tesla I believe is going to make a whole new line of passenger cars that are geared around this new paradigm of driving which is not self which is not you driving yourself but it's being driven by AI.”

“I think by doing that, Tesla can bring down the cost of the Model Y perhaps probably by $6 to $8,000.”

“I think I'm going to be able to drive my Tesla with unsupervised FSD by the end of the year in Austin.”

“I wouldn't be surprised within a year or two people just drop LAR completely and admit that cameras and a a strong computer is good enough because of how fast how much neural nets have advanced over time.”

“I think Tesla will dominate the future of robo taxis. They made the right decisions.”

“With Elon, you're betting that his long-term contributions far outweigh, right, the passing short-term distractions and costs that he might bring to the table.”

“And then as Tesla scales, they're going to have, you know, more density, which leads to faster pickup times.”

“So if you know they can be comparable right now in six months, I think Tesla can be way ahead in 12 months. I don't think it's going to be a competition in terms of ride comfort and safety.”

“But um I think it's going to be harder and harder to evaluate because the basic driving is just going to be perfect. You're just going to sit in the car and there's like basically almost nothing to improve.”

“I think that's going to be one of the big reasons why it's a it's a it's a great business long term for Tesla. It's just if they can get it st established and and up and running the way that I think they can.”

“it feels like ah in the future people are going to use robo taxi kind of like this. You're just going to eat lunch, go somewhere, go coffee, go somewhere, you know, in and out, in and out quick.”

“No, six to 12 months we're talking about like handling all the challenging, you know, edge cases.”

“So I mean my thinking is in three or four months Tesla will have a neural net that's like three or four times larger.”

“Eventually, this robo tax is going to beat Whimo and everyone else in just a matter of time and then the stock's going to appreciate. Yep.”

“We're going to start to see um I think Tesla shoot out in front eventually as they're able to scale.”

“if Tesla robo taxi is able to deliver a cheaper ride at density and shorter weight times, let's say in let's say here in Austin, right, downtown or Austin or this area, people are going to use it.”

“I would imagine in six months we we get rid of the safety monitor. Um, and we have expansion into some other cities without the safety monitor.”

“if they're ready at this place where they're able to roll out in a in a limited geo fenced area um already this means in 6 months and in 12 months and 18 months they're going to be able to probably roll this out in a much bigger area.”

“Within six to 12 months, I think Tesla's system is going to be radically um better.”

“I think by the end of this year, you see another big jump”

“I think it's just a matter of time before Tesla really uh gains the capability and the performance really just to to scale at at a large uh large pace.”

“But Tesla can definitely I think undercut that price. They their hardware is so much you know less expensive.”

“If it's significantly better then there's a chance that Tesla could be actually uh ready to scale more or faster than even I expect.”

“I think you know it's probably sometime next year where we're going to see kind of the rapid roll out you know across many city not just many cities but without uh the Tesla monitor in the car”

“I don't expect Tesla to do this crazy ramp in the next six months.”

“I could see the picture coming together of how Tesla uh is going to gain a lot of market share.”

“As it proves safer, Tesla will expand the roll out.”

“I think we're going to start to see a slow roll out, a very, very slow roll out as Tesla tests out the kinks.”

“Tesla has their new robo taxi service launching by the end of June, possibly on June 22nd. We shall see.”

“The auto business was their first act, but AI transport and AI labor are where the real value creation will happen.”

“this is going to show up in their financial statements because Tesla has a line item called Energy generation and storage and we're going to see a huge boost in the revenue but also the profit that Tesla showed from energy storage”

“overall I think the delivery numbers were great and it sets up Tesla for a good second half of 2024”

“these strong delivery numbers mean we'll likely see a rebound in Tesla's margins this quarter and it'll stop the downward trajectory of their gross margins and operating margins”

“And so within a year or two it's going to be like 10 or 20 times better than human driver.”

“And you're you're going to see this thing like just skyrocket quarter over quarter like over 100% 200% like like 80% margins, crazy margins.”

“Then you're going to see this crazy adoption and you're going to see the revenue like show as well.”

“I wouldn't say I wouldn't say that this is definitive, but as robotaxi network rolls out, I could see there's a period that is very very unexpected for Wall Street. And that period is like that period maybe my guess is between the two and three year period from now.”

“If Tesla can turn around their margins and show that they're going up, then I think the stock will follow that. If they can't, then it's not.”

“the next five years so much has been done with robotaxi that you just need to iterate it and just just do what you're doing and you're it's going to roll out and I think it's going to be very, very profitable.”

“I just think the next five years are going to be very good for Tesla because I think what Elon and the team has set up for robotaxi, it like it's it's all pretty much set up.”

“if Tesla can grow and if they can become profitable and growth growing in their profitability, then you can have this huge rebound, you know, this like re-rating of the stock again.”

“if things go well then Tesla I think has definitely a bright future with robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot”

“the potential I think for Tesla as a company is immense especially if they're able to focus and execute well right toward delivering a very compelling and useful humanoid robot”

“it it if we see FSD in a robot taxi form come to Market in the next few years you give the cars away because their car is going to be a rounding error on the value of FSD”

“I thought yeah it was like extremely bullish in my opinion that that it's a combination of there's a super ambitious goals but also they've really rethought and came up with some really not just small incremental but some big you know changes”