Every thesis Meet Kevin has voiced on AMD — 27 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
Kevin remains enthusiastic about the hardware stack and describes AMD favorably while acknowledging losses on recent purchases. His AMD discussion focuses on chip commitments and stock warrants rather than a separate current buy recommendation or price forecast.
Key arguments
AMD participates in large AI compute supply agreements.
Warrant arrangements incentivize customers to purchase AMD chips.
He considers recent hardware purchases consistent with his long-term thesis.
Risks acknowledged
Recent AMD purchases have declined.
Customer financing constraints could reduce hardware spending.
Kevin endorses AMD as part of his AI buying stance and gives a roughly $1,080 valuation estimate. He believes enterprise demand and overlooked Ryzen Pro growth support substantial upside, although Nvidia appears cheaper on his PEG comparison.
Key arguments
Enterprise AI spending broadens the customer base.
His growth estimate for AMD is 55.88%.
He believes Wall Street is overlooking Ryzen Pro growth.
A 71 PE divided by forecast growth produces a 1.27 PEG, below his preferred 2.4.
He expects AMD's smaller size to support faster momentum.
Risks acknowledged
Nvidia is approximately half as expensive on his PEG comparison.
He acknowledges that he may be too bullish.
The stated fair value is a rough estimate rather than a fully demonstrated calculation.
Kevin celebrates AMD's strong session and describes an earlier bullish trade call from his paid report. This is retrospective commentary rather than a new forecast.
Kevin remains bullish on AMD and believes its current advance is only the beginning, independent of an Iran agreement. His valuation exercise suggests approximately 1080, while he sees faster momentum potential than Nvidia because AMD is smaller.
Key arguments
His growth estimate is approximately 55.88%.
A PEG ratio near 1.27 appears inexpensive against his preferred 2.4.
Ryzen Pro growth may be overlooked within the gaming reporting segment.
Enterprise AI spending extends beyond frontier-model developers.
Risks acknowledged
AMD is more expensive than Nvidia on his PEG comparison.
A full-scale war could disrupt the bullish outlook.
The host expects AMD's gains to continue as AI valuations set up another boom. He believes this upside can occur regardless of an Iran agreement because modest additional financing costs will not derail hyperscaler investment.
Key arguments
He views compressed AI valuations as setting up the next boom.
AMD's intraday rise is described as only the beginning.
Additional rate hikes are considered immaterial to large AI infrastructure commitments.
Risks acknowledged
A major renewed war could cause a broad market decline.
Near-term Microsoft and Amazon earnings remain a checkpoint for the hardware thesis.
Kevin promotes his earlier bullish AMD call and celebrates the ongoing intraday rally. Beyond those retrospective claims, he expresses a tentative hope that the current advance continues.
Key arguments
AMD had risen roughly 4.5% after the earlier report.
He retained a positive AMD stance despite Nvidia-related competitive financing developments.
Risks acknowledged
He says the trading calls cannot be perfect every day.
Kevin expresses interest in AMD after its price decline as part of his broader enthusiasm for buying the equity pullback. He says he does not own it and leaves any purchase undecided, without making a distinct forecast for AMD's price or return.
Key arguments
He considers AMD substantially cheaper following the pullback.
He includes AMD among companies attracting his attention as selling pressure potentially subsides.
Kevin celebrates AMD's intraday rise and reports a trade made that morning. He identifies a technical level to watch but does not state a directional outcome from that level or provide the trade's terms.
Key arguments
AMD approaches a cited 520 technical level.
The host reports that his morning trade is benefiting from the current move.
Risks acknowledged
The technical level could produce either a breakout or a rejection.
BullishPREPARE: The Bailout is Coming.Oct 23, 2026
The host celebrates an AMD trade initiated earlier that morning and its immediate favorable price movement. This is a report of trading activity and observed performance rather than a new forward price prediction.
Key arguments
The host reports initiating an AMD position or strategy that morning.
He describes the stock as rising during the recording.
Risks acknowledged
Trade structure, target and holding period are not disclosed.
Kevin sees AMD as a beneficiary of continued demand for advanced chips and potentially more available memory. He notes the share-price pullback while maintaining optimism about the broader chip buildout.
Key arguments
Advanced chips remain necessary as AI applications become more useful.
Stabilizing memory costs could benefit chip designers.
He attributes recent weakness partly to neocloud concerns rather than an industry-wide demand collapse.
Risks acknowledged
Manufacturing supply remains constrained.
A future AI overbuild remains possible.
BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to the Stock MarketOct 19, 2026
Kevin expects AMD's advanced chips to participate in continued AI infrastructure expansion. He sees stabilizing memory prices and more efficient model deployment as favorable business conditions without separately forecasting AMD investment returns.
Key arguments
Hyperscalers continue seeking additional chips.
Smaller models and efficient memory configurations broaden deployment opportunities.
Stabilizing memory costs could benefit chip designers.
Risks acknowledged
Chip production and infrastructure availability can remain bottlenecks.
The broader investment cycle could eventually become a bubble.
The host questions the CPU-demand assumptions accompanying AMD's rally and calls the stock overbought on the daily chart. He argues that shared infrastructure and intermittent usage reduce the number of CPUs needed for widespread agent deployment, but gives no explicit forward-looking price or investment-return call.
Key arguments
AMD has rallied sharply, reaching 645 according to the host, and is described as overbought on the daily chart.
Agent workloads can use small virtual CPU allocations drawn from pooled infrastructure.
Users do not run agents continuously, allowing CPU resources to be shared.
A cited estimate suggests one 256-core AMD Venice chip could support about 896 agents under shared-time assumptions.
Risks acknowledged
The capacity estimate depends on agents not all running simultaneously.
Bearish*The Critical Release of the PPI & Retail Sales Report* FED RATESOct 15, 2026
Kevin recounts having called AMD overbought and recommended selling year-end calls before its decline. He uses that historical example to illustrate hardware vulnerability during a liquidity squeeze, without clearly issuing a fresh AMD downside forecast.
Key arguments
AMD initially rose after his earlier call but subsequently fell below the level where he made it.
He argues that selling calls would have benefited from the subsequent decline.
AI hardware is particularly exposed to capital-raising-driven volatility.
Risks acknowledged
The initial rise made his earlier timing look wrong.
He expects a broader hardware rally after deleveraging.
BearishIs the Recession Beginning?!?!?!Oct 15, 2026
Kevin reviews his earlier assessment that AMD was overbought and his recommendation to sell year-end calls. He says the subsequent decline vindicated that trade, but does not clearly issue a fresh AMD forecast in this segment.
Key arguments
He previously viewed AMD as overbought around the cited $620 level.
He reports that AMD subsequently fell roughly 13–14% from the level of his earlier recommendation.
Hardware stocks are vulnerable to liquidity pressure and leveraged selling.
Risks acknowledged
AMD initially rose another 4–5% after his recommendation.
He expects the broader hardware trade eventually to rally strongly.
Kevin identifies AMD as a potential business beneficiary once financing and memory concerns subside. Cheaper memory could improve the economics of systems that package processing logic with memory, although the broader hardware sector faces near-term pressure.
Key arguments
Lower memory costs improve system economics.
Resolution of neocloud financing concerns could support the hardware cycle.
Risks acknowledged
Hardware remains exposed to elevated yields and Iran-related uncertainty.
The favorable outlook depends on working through memory and financing fears.
Kevin identifies AMD as a potential operational beneficiary once financing fears and memory-market disruption pass. Cheaper memory could improve the economics of systems combining logic and memory.
Key arguments
Lower memory costs improve the economics of packaged computing systems.
Resolution of neocloud financing concerns could support the hardware cycle.
Risks acknowledged
Higher yields and neocloud distress remain near-term sector headwinds.
Kevin groups AMD with chip stocks experiencing pressure as large AI financing deals draw capital away from equities. This is a relative capital-flow observation without an independently stated absolute stock-price forecast.
Key arguments
AI financing announcements can divert capital toward bonds.
Apple benefits from rotation while chip stocks face pressure.
Risks acknowledged
The host remains optimistic about improving AI products and potential broader market relief.
MixedThe Bubble *JUST* Popped | WTF Just Happened.Oct 8, 2026
The host remains favorable toward AMD's business but considers the recent agentic-AI rally overextended relative to competing chip companies. He questions whether enthusiasm for everyday CPU workloads matches the sources of AMD's current major revenue.
Key arguments
AMD's valuation is described as roughly twice that of several other relevant chip companies.
Excitement around agentic AI and CPUs may be overblown.
The host distinguishes frontier-level computing revenue from basic agent workloads.
Risks acknowledged
The host calls himself a big fan of AMD.
He describes AMD's prior performance as fantastic and references earlier bullish coverage.
BearishMarket Recovery, Fed Bailout, Iran, War, Oil, MicronSep 30, 2026
Kevin contrasts AMD's weakness with gains in other technology stocks and reports an earlier bearish stance. His discussion of selling calls around 618 is retrospective rather than a new price forecast.
Key arguments
AMD is negative while several large technology stocks rise.
He reports having discussed selling calls around the 618 level.
The share price subsequently falls below the level associated with his earlier bearish view.
BearishI'm WORRIED about THESE AI Chip Stocks | Agentic AI RiskSep 30, 2026
Kevin notes AMD is benefiting from AI infrastructure spending flowing from hyperscalers and views AMD as part of the broader undervalued hardware trade, though he notes it's not as central to Nvidia's exclusive partnerships.
Key arguments
Capex raised by companies like Google and SpaceX partly flows to AMD as an ASIC/GPU supplier
Kevin sees AMD as a major beneficiary of the CPU boom driven by agentic AI workloads, citing strong margin expansion and revenue growth projections, though he flags the stock as short-term overbought. He derives a PEG-based target near $944 while cautioning he wouldn't add more shares at current levels.
Key arguments
AMD margins jumped from 39.8% to 53.7% gross
72% revenue growth projected next year, reaching $88 billion
AMD's Epyc Turin chip projected to capture ~50% of CPU TAM in data centers
AMD trades at a lower PEG (1.5-1.6) upside potential versus Nvidia's ~0.7-1
Risks acknowledged
AMD is overbought short-term (RSI near 73 daily, 70 weekly)
Margins still much lower than Nvidia's
Nvidia's growing CPU push could compete directly with AMD
Kevin is bullish on AMD's ramp into data-center CPUs and its warrant deals with Meta and OpenAI, but flags the stock as short-term overbought and says he would not add at current levels despite still seeing further upside based on relative valuation versus Nvidia.
Key arguments
Gross margins jumped from 39.8% to 53.7% on data center mix shift
Issued warrants to Meta and OpenAI tied to GPU purchase milestones
Revenue growth projected at 72% with $88B target by full year
Trades at ~1.5-1.6x PEG vs Nvidia's ~0.7-1x, implying relative upside
Kevin views AMD as still relatively cheap on a PEG basis despite its huge run and approaching $1 trillion market cap, though he expects near-term momentum to rotate away from AMD and Dell toward other hardware names.
Key arguments
AMD trades around a 1.5 PEG ratio, which Kevin considers inexpensive given its margins
AMD is nearing a $1 trillion market cap and was still up 9% on the day discussed
Risks acknowledged
Momentum may rotate away from AMD and Dell toward other hardware plays in the near term
As part of his hardware super-cycle 2.0 thesis, Kevin expects AMD to perform well even though he does not currently hold a position, viewing the whole chip/hardware complex as set up to rally together.
Key arguments
Part of broader thesis that inference-driven opex spend will lift the entire hardware stack together
