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Broadcom (AVGO)

How the view evolved

Meet Kevin on AVGO

Every thesis Meet Kevin has voiced on AVGO — 23 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
AVGOBroadcom
BullishThe Falling Stock Market.Oct 30, 2026
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Kevin views Broadcom's vendor-financing role favorably because high margins provide a cushion against financing concessions. He discusses its investment-grade backing of senior Project North Star debt without making a stock-return forecast.

Key arguments

  • High net and gross margins reduce the economic cost of vendor financing.
  • Broadcom guarantees a substantial senior-debt component of the financing structure.
  • Its investment-grade rating contrasts with the expected rating on Anthropic-backed junior debt.

Risks acknowledged

  • AI financing structures link suppliers to customer credit risk.
  • More expensive financing can slow overall chip spending.
BullishAnthropic JUST Crashed the Market: Explained.Oct 30, 2026
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Kevin argues that Broadcom's high margins help cushion the economic risk of vendor financing for Anthropic. This is operational optimism about financing resilience, without an explicit forecast for Broadcom shares.

Key arguments

  • He cites approximately 55% net margins and 75% gross margins.
  • He argues that partial customer payments could still cover production costs.
  • He describes Broadcom backing the senior portion of the financing with its investment-grade credit.

Risks acknowledged

  • The arrangement involves substantial vendor financing.
  • Anthropic's junior debt is expected to receive a junk rating.
BullishHOLY AI Merger: Nvidia's AI Stocks Marvell & Lumentum MERGINGOct 29, 2026
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Kevin recommends owning both Broadcom and Marvell to cover competing connectivity strategies. He views Broadcom as a leading custom silicon supplier with a conservative approach and a cheaper valuation than Marvell.

Key arguments

  • Broadcom is described as the ASIC market leader.
  • Its copper connectivity strength benefits from copper's lower cost.
  • It also has optical ambitions.
  • Its valuation provides a comparatively cheaper alternative to Marvell and Lumentum.

Risks acknowledged

  • Marvell is pursuing a more ambitious optical integration strategy.
  • The future balance between copper and optics is uncertain.
BullishMicrosoft Stock & Google Earnings & BessentOct 28, 2026
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Kevin views Broadcom as a strong ASIC leader with a more conservative copper-focused strategy than Marvell. He recommends owning both companies to participate in competing connectivity approaches and discloses exposure to both.

Key arguments

  • He cites Broadcom's leading ASIC market share and relationships with major AI customers.
  • Copper can remain economical while bandwidth and distance permit.
  • He considers Broadcom a cheaper alternative to Lumentum in prior valuation work.

Risks acknowledged

  • Marvell is more aggressive in pursuing optical integration.
  • Optics could gain importance as copper reaches technical limits.
  • He emphasizes diversification and cannot identify the ultimate best-performing company.
BullishPrepare for the Fed Meeting (and War???)Oct 28, 2026
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Kevin welcomes declining Broadcom credit-default-swap spreads as evidence that AI financing fears may be easing. He also discusses its custom-chip role without making an explicit stock forecast.

Key arguments

  • He observes a second day of falling credit-default-swap spreads.
  • Custom AI chips are part of a broadening infrastructure ecosystem.

Risks acknowledged

  • Specialized chips can lose value rapidly if customer requirements change.
BullishBIG WEEK: Fed, Rates, Catalysts, Fear, Stocks, RecoveryOct 27, 2026
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Kevin places Broadcom among the chip companies that should benefit as enterprise AI spending broadens beyond frontier laboratories. Its Anthropic financing arrangement is also evidence for his argument that capital remains available.

Key arguments

  • Custom-chip financing supports infrastructure expansion.
  • Open-weight models broaden the enterprise customer base.

Risks acknowledged

  • AI infrastructure spending may eventually slow.
MixedThis Is WHY Stocks Are Volatile Right Now!Oct 25, 2026
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The host uses Broadcom's CEO's casino comments to discuss speculative market reactions and the funding requirements of the AI cycle. He explicitly agrees with the money-shortage diagnosis, but provides no directional investment view on Broadcom shares.

Key arguments

  • The host calls the broad stock-market decline over differing OpenAI revenue estimates ridiculous.
  • Broadcom's CEO distinguishes short-term speculation from longer-term AI investment.
  • The host endorses the argument that financing continued AI investment is becoming a constraint.

Risks acknowledged

  • The CEO remains bullish on longer-term AI despite near-term speculation and funding constraints.
  • AI productivity benefits require time to demonstrate.
MixedThe Collapse BeginsOct 22, 2026
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Broadcom appears both in the discussion of major AI financing demands and as a partner in custom accelerator development. The host expects the ASIC market to grow, without stating a Broadcom share-price forecast.

Key arguments

  • Custom accelerators are expected to gain compute share.
  • Broadcom participates in accelerator partnerships.

Risks acknowledged

  • Large AI funding rounds contribute to market liquidity pressure.
MixedThe Market CRASH & EarningsOct 22, 2026
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Kevin expects the custom AI accelerator market to expand through 2027 and 2028, identifying Broadcom as a partner in that ecosystem. He also highlights large AI funding rounds associated with Broadcom as part of the capital-demand pressure affecting public markets.

Key arguments

  • Custom accelerators are gaining incremental compute share.
  • Hyperscalers work with chip-design partners such as Broadcom.
  • He expects the ASIC market expansion to continue in 2027 and 2028.

Risks acknowledged

  • Large financing requirements can pressure public equity valuations.
  • ASIC adoption growth is not an explicit Broadcom stock-return prediction.
BullishChip Stocks, AI, Fed, Iran, SpaceXOct 19, 2026
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Kevin describes Broadcom's valuation favorably and includes its custom-accelerator partnerships in the continuing AI buildout. He notes a price pullback without supplying a future share-price target.

Key arguments

  • Custom accelerator projects expand demand beyond Nvidia GPUs.
  • He treats current chip-sector discounts as potentially attractive.

Risks acknowledged

  • Neocloud financing concerns are pressuring the sector.
  • The broader AI boom may eventually become a bubble.
BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to the Stock MarketOct 19, 2026
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Kevin mentions Broadcom as a participant in Google's custom accelerator ecosystem. Its role supports his broader chip-demand thesis, without a separate investment-return prediction.

Key arguments

  • Custom accelerator development broadens the AI chip buildout beyond general-purpose GPUs.
  • Continued hyperscaler spending supports the surrounding chip ecosystem.
BullishThe Fed JUST Bailed us Out AGAIN | What do they SEE?!?!?!Oct 13, 2026
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The host views Broadcom's bounce around $355 as an attractive investment entry as less aggressive Federal Reserve guidance supports chip stocks. He also places Broadcom within an AI financing boom that may strain credit markets and compete with equities for capital.

Key arguments

  • The host explicitly calls the bounce off $355 a great entry.
  • Federal Reserve commentary suggesting fewer hikes is supporting the stock market and chip shares.
  • Broadcom's involvement with major AI companies contributes to substantial capital demand.

Risks acknowledged

  • Heavy issuance and widening credit spreads suggest credit risk.
  • Attractive bond returns can reduce the relative appeal of stocks.
  • A disruption in AI spending could damage the broader economy.
Strongly BullishStocks Fall, Yields Fall, the $140b SUCKENING ReturnsOct 13, 2026
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Kevin considers Broadcom deeply undervalued relative to expected growth and argues that its CEO's casino comments were misunderstood. He sees severalfold valuation upside if reasonable growth continues, while acknowledging the financing burden supporting AI investment.

Key arguments

  • He describes the stock as trading near a 0.6 PEG ratio.
  • He believes AI products continue improving and supports the longer-term AI investment thesis.
  • Vendor financing can facilitate chip purchases and recognize revenue today.
  • He interprets the CEO's comments as criticism of short-term speculation rather than rejection of AI's potential.

Risks acknowledged

  • Vendor financing leaves Broadcom holding accounts receivable.
  • The industry faces a money shortage as capital requirements rise.
  • Investors question whether rapid growth can continue.
  • The upside case explicitly depends on reasonable growth continuing.
Strongly BullishWe have *JUST* 7 days left.Oct 13, 2026
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Kevin argues Broadcom's valuation is extremely cheap relative to expected growth and suggests substantial multiple-fold stock upside. That view explicitly depends on growth continuing despite investor concerns about AI financing and sustainability.

Key arguments

  • He describes the stock as trading at a very low PEG valuation relative to expectations.
  • He believes AI products continue to improve, supporting the durability of the investment cycle.
  • He endorses the CEO's assessment that financing availability is replacing memory supply as a constraint.
  • Vendor financing enables current chip sales and revenue.

Risks acknowledged

  • The valuation thesis assumes a reasonable level of continued growth.
  • Investors question whether rapid growth can persist.
  • Vendor financing leaves Broadcom holding accounts receivable.
  • Large financing requirements and bond-market stress can pressure hardware stocks.
BullishHoly Sh*t TeslaOct 2, 2026
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Kevin uses Broadcom as a valuation comparison to illustrate Tesla's relatively expensive PEG ratio. He describes Broadcom as an ASIC, photonics, and copper-related opportunity with a substantially lower PEG ratio, without making a directional forecast.

Key arguments

  • Its cited PEG ratio is substantially lower than Tesla's.
  • He associates its business with ASIC design, photonics, and copper.
Strongly BullishThe Morning After Micron, Jobs Tomorrow, Iran LACKS Progress.Oct 1, 2026
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Kevin argues that Broadcom is deeply undervalued relative to its expected growth and roughly 54% net margins. He derives a possible $1,400 share valuation and expects cheaper memory to benefit Broadcom's margins, while acknowledging concentration and financing risks.

Key arguments

  • He calculates a forward earnings multiple near 30 and projected growth around 45%.
  • His resulting PEG calculation is approximately 0.64.
  • He argues that Broadcom offers a lower growth-adjusted valuation and stronger margins than FICO.
  • Custom-chip demand remains supported by AI infrastructure spending.
  • Cheaper RAM and high-bandwidth memory could let chip suppliers retain more margin.

Risks acknowledged

  • Potential lending to Anthropic increases customer concentration.
  • Circular financing creates market nervousness.
  • Broadcom is already a very large company.
  • The valuation exercise relies on forecast growth and a higher justified multiple.
BullishGoldman ISSUES Warning for the Total Stock Market | 2027 will SUCK.Sep 22, 2026
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Kevin includes Broadcom among hardware names he believes are undervalued relative to profitability as part of his 'hardware 2.0' thesis.

Key arguments

  • Broadcom is grouped with Meta and Nvidia as trading under a 1.0 PEG ratio, implying undervaluation
Bullishwhy stocks are skyrocketing [spoiler: it's just getting started]Sep 21, 2026
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Kevin cites Broadcom as another example of a hardware stock trading at roughly half the valuation multiple, implying it is undervalued relative to the broader hardware rally.

Key arguments

  • Broadcom trades at roughly half the PEG valuation multiple of other hardware names
BullishPREPARE FOR 3 RATE HIKES | Why I'm Buying.Sep 11, 2026
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Broadcom is grouped with other hardware names Kevin expects to benefit if his bullish Iran-deal scenario plays out.

Key arguments

  • Named among hardware beneficiaries of a potential Iran deal scenario

Risks acknowledged

  • Acknowledges this is his own speculation and he could be wrong
BullishWall Street is Warning: The Crash of 2027 is Coming: PREPARE.Sep 3, 2026
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Kevin views Broadcom as fundamentally strong and undervalued given its cheap PEG ratio, high margins, and strong cash flow, even as the stock faces near-term technical selling pressure amid broader hardware sector bearishness. He cites Broadcom's own guidance for AI revenue growth but does not offer his own stock price target.

Key arguments

  • Trading at roughly a 0.9 PEG ratio, which Kevin calls 'really cheap'
  • 55% net margins and strong free cash flow, potentially debt-free within 6 months
  • Broadcom's own guidance projects AI revenue doubling to $115B then to $230B by 2028

Risks acknowledged

  • Margins could compress further as more XPUs are sold to Anthropic, Google, and Meta
  • Market is discounting the stock due to sustainability concerns around the capex cycle
  • Hardware sector is currently selling off on technical/momentum factors
BullishAI Stocks: Broadcom, Snowflake, HPE EarningsSep 2, 2026
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Kevin views Broadcom as fundamentally strong but temporarily punished for a small Q4 revenue guidance miss, noting exceptional margins, huge free cash flow, and a cheap valuation relative to growth. He believes the stock could be worth close to $1,000 based on its margin profile, though he flags the large debt load as a lingering concern.

Key arguments

  • Revenue accelerated 85% year-over-year and 33% sequentially, an acceleration in growth rate
  • Net margins near 55% with $13.6 billion free cash flow in a single quarter
  • Trading at roughly a 0.9 PEG ratio versus ~34% four-year growth, which he calls 'cheap cheap for these margins'
  • Company has stopped taking on new debt and is now paying it down

Risks acknowledged

  • Second consecutive quarter of missed revenue guidance
  • $57 billion in long-term debt is 'the one thing that stops me from wanting to buy this company'
  • Weaker pricing power as cost of revenue grew faster than revenue
NeutralJP Morgan JUST went Bearish Stocks | Here’s WhySep 1, 2026
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Kevin notes that Broadcom's upcoming earnings are seen by JP Morgan as a potential catalyst for the broader hardware/AI trade, pointing out that the stock fell over 20% after its last earnings report and has derisked about 25% from its June high. He does not commit to a directional call on the stock itself, framing it mainly as a risk event to watch.

Key arguments

  • Broadcom stock dropped over 20% after its last earnings report, falling from a $494 high to around $369.
  • JP Morgan views Broadcom's upcoming earnings as a key test for whether the 'hardware 2.0' rally can continue.