Stock Moe onBTCBitcoin

The host acknowledges a major short squeeze in Bitcoin, noting it traded above $85K for the first time since January amid hundreds of millions in short liquidations. However, he tempers this by saying he is only bullish on the broader crypto market through the end of the month, flagging Fed hiking and weak ETF inflows as risks.

Stock Moe reviews multiple Fed hiking cycles and finds Bitcoin's reaction has been inconsistent, sometimes rising and sometimes falling after the first hike. He explicitly declines to give a rate-based price prediction but warns that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would be very bad for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is testing a key support level after the failed Clarity Act vote, with the host noting mixed ETF flows and headwinds from an expected Fed rate hike and rising Treasury yields, but he does not commit to a directional call.

Bitcoin is used mainly as a comparison point, noted as trading about 38% below its high while its funds saw outflows of $236 million as money rotated into XRP funds. The host does not state a directional price prediction for Bitcoin in this video.

Stock Moe examined five prior death-cross events to argue the current weekly death cross is a weak bearish signal (40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms) compared to the 200-day reclaim pattern, which has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows. He believes crypto winter is likely thawing rather than definitively over, expecting a bottom before year-end.

The host notes Bitcoin is having its best August since 2017 and is at its highest open in months, with strong ETF inflows, but flags Fed policy uncertainty and rejected chart levels as headwinds. He does not issue a new specific price prediction, instead discussing macro catalysts like the Fed meeting and Jackson Hole.

Stock Moe attributes Bitcoin's 22.9% weekly rise to a massive short squeeze, renewed ETF inflows, and Fed liquidity moves from new Fed figure Kevin Warsh. He sees Bitcoin as overbought but part of a broader risk-on move that could continue, chop sideways, or reverse depending on how upcoming catalysts play out.

Moe briefly notes Bitcoin has been running higher recently, mentioning a move from about 64 to 68, but offers no forward-looking price target or clear thesis beyond noting the momentum.

Stock Moe views Bitcoin as range-bound in a channel since early July, saying he wouldn't get nervous unless it breaks below the 60K area. He also flags Michael Saylor's lack of buying as a downward pressure factor and expects an eventual capitulation dump before winter ends around October or November.

Stock Moe argues that Strategy (Michael Saylor's company) halting its Bitcoin purchases and now selling roughly $109 million worth removes a key source of price support, which he believes will push Bitcoin down toward the $40,000-$50,000 zone by the end of the crypto winter. He frames this as validating a call he made previously based on Saylor's own past comments about where BTC would trade without corporate buying.

Stock Moe flags that Bitcoin just lost a key support level near $64K and is currently trading around $63,571, and he expects a further test of roughly $62,752 within the coming week. He notes Bitcoin usually leads crypto markets and its current weakness is a bad sign for the broader space.

Bitcoin is mentioned only as a comparison point for ETF inflows, which remained strong relative to XRP. No directional prediction is made about Bitcoin's price.