Randy Kirk onSPACEXSpaceX

Randy notes retail investors have been selling SpaceX shares despite the stock being up since the selling began, and discusses David Einhorn's bearish letter questioning SpaceX's IPO valuation and credit ratings given its cash burn. Randy pushes back on Einhorn's concerns, citing comments from SpaceX leadership that they have sufficient capital and pointing to new NASA contract wins.

The host relays SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell's comments that the company will self-fund all future capital spending (solar fabs, Starlink, data centers, Starship production) through operating cash flow and possibly some borrowing, with no plans to sell additional shares. He views this as strongly positive news but is puzzled that SpaceX stock still fell 3% on the day.

The hosts discuss SpaceX's rapidly growing data-center/energy business and accelerating Starship launch cadence, framing the company as poised for a large revenue ramp. SpaceX is a private company, so no tradable stock predictions can be extracted, but the sentiment expressed is clearly bullish on the business trajectory.

Randy Kirk argues that the explosive growth in AI agent adoption (via Grokbot and xAI's tools) will massively increase demand for compute infrastructure, and that SpaceX is uniquely positioned to benefit by building data centers quickly, potentially even in space where land, power, and water constraints don't apply. He describes the future of SpaceX as 'super bright' due to this anticipated compute demand surge.

Randy lists numerous near-term catalysts he believes could move SpaceX's private share price higher, including a share unlock event, the NASDAQ rebalancing, Starship 14 test milestones, new data-center contracts, and upcoming earnings. He notes large institutional buyers like Norway's pension fund and Harvard's endowment have been accumulating shares, and describes strong Starlink subscriber growth.

The hosts discuss a semi-analysis report projecting SpaceX could build roughly 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end 2027, generating up to $300 billion in annual recurring revenue from AI compute sales to customers like Google, Anthropic, and potentially Microsoft. They argue SpaceX's speed advantage in building data centers and gas-turbine power generation gives it a structural edge over traditional hyperscalers.

Brad is highly bullish on SpaceX due to explosive compute/AI revenue growth from its XAI acquisition, citing plans for multiple gigawatts of compute capacity generating tens of billions in run-rate revenue. As a private company, no tradable stock predictions are made, but the hosts view its growth trajectory as far ahead of Tesla's currently visible revenue story.

The hosts discuss SpaceX largely in the context of Starlink/Star Mind computing power being the 'brain' behind Optimus, and speculate SpaceX could also reach a trillion-dollar valuation by 2030 driven by data centers on Earth and in space. One host also shares his personal cost basis in SpaceX shares, noting volatility but overall optimism.

Randy describes SpaceX stock as 'primed' for FOMO buying after rallying from $109 to roughly $148-150 in a short period. He believes the stock will eventually move back into the 200s based on confirmations of Starlink, data center, and launch growth, though he is uncertain on timing and expects it may stall or pull back around the $150 level first.

Randy and Brian discuss SpaceX's sharp stock rally following the post-IPO lockup expiration, framing it as evidence of resilience and strong demand across Starlink, Starship, X, and compute businesses. They note institutional buying (e.g., BlackRock, Kathy Wood) is driving the move, while acknowledging real uncertainty about whether today's valuation is justified by future execution.

Randy is highly bullish on SpaceX's prospects, driven primarily by an expected massive buildout in data center rental capacity, which he believes could generate tens of billions in profit. He frames the risk/reward as heavily skewed to the upside, though he stops short of committing to a specific price target.