Hidden Forces
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Theses over time (1)
Grouped by ticker, most-recent thesis first. Reads as the evolution of Hidden Forces's view on each asset — earlier entries show where they started, later ones show where they landed.
TSLA1 narrative
Strongly BearishTesla and the Cult of Elon Musk. Are We Seeing a Bursting Bubble in Tech? | Mark SpiegelApr 15, 2018
Three-part short thesis restated with Q1 2018 numbers: no moat (battery packs trailing prismatic leapfrog, autonomy ranked 18th/18), no runway (S/X unit sales already down double-digits both sequentially and YoY before luxury-EV competitors arrive), no trustworthy leadership. Q4 2017 GAAP loss was ~\$28K per car excluding ZEV credits, ~\$24K with. Service + used-car gross margins gone deeply negative because they under-reserve warranties and overpay on trade-ins, burying the mechanical cross-subsidy.
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