Micron is reported down 5.6% during the selloff. The host does not establish a forward investment view on Micron.
Key arguments
- Micron's decline adds to the evidence of widespread technology weakness.

How the view evolved
Micron is reported down 5.6% during the selloff. The host does not establish a forward investment view on Micron.
The host uses Micron's frequent large daily moves to illustrate volatility disconnected from daily fundamental news. He expects greater memory demand and supply over coming years but does not express a Micron stock-price forecast.
Micron is cited as having declined more than 16% during the recent sell-off. The host provides no specific assessment of its future investment returns.
The host praises Micron's reported results and expects another revenue beat next quarter. He nevertheless argues that cyclical earnings and margins are unlikely to remain sustainable, limiting the valuation investors will pay and creating eventual downside risk.
2 predictions from this thesis
“earnings likely top in the next 12 to 24 months and then start going down margins start going down and what are you left with then a stock that's going to go down and it's going to go down quite dramatically”
“63 billion is probably worst case scenario in my opinion for next quarter. Uh, but they might come in at 64 or $65 billion number for next quarter”
The host expects excellent upcoming earnings and guidance from Micron. His longer-term view is bearish because he expects investor interest in semiconductor stocks to collapse during the next down cycle.
2 predictions from this thesis
“Like two years from now, I don't think you'll be able to find a soul that will want any piece of semiconductor stocks. I'm talking Micron, I'm talking SanDisk, I'm talking Nvidia, even the great AMD.”
“MU is coming out with earnings this week. It's going to be great numbers. Guidance is going to be great.”
The host sees Micron as a late-cycle memory stock whose profits will peak in 2027. He believes current profitability can mislead investors into buying before a prolonged period of disappointing returns.
Micron serves as an example of how low semiconductor valuations can reflect concern about future growth peaking. The host describes market concerns rather than making a firm Micron-specific price prediction.
Micron was down 7% on the day and is grouped among the 'scared stocks' at the top of the market due to uncertainty about the memory/chip cycle several years out. The host questions whether Micron's current strong earnings can hold up through 2028-2030.
The host explored a short-term leveraged trade on Micron after it fell 30% from highs, believing there was a decent probability of a strong bounce, but ultimately declined to make the trade because it conflicted with his long-term investing discipline. He acknowledges Micron is a cyclical company that will likely make substantial money in the coming years but chose not to gamble on a short-term move.
Micron's decline is presented as a rotation-driven and seasonal setback. A return of investor demand for semiconductor shares could bring the stock back toward record highs.
3 predictions from this thesis
“You'd be looking at Micron all-time highs, maybe even a SanDisk at all-time highs, although one's got a long way to go there.”
“And next thing you know, a lot of these stocks like AMD or SanDisk or Micron or these sorts of companies, right, um start approaching all-time highs again and maybe some of them even hit new all-time highs.”
“And we're likely prepping up for a big upward move.”
The speaker notes Micron has fallen sharply from its highs and finds the current price somewhat tempting, but stops short of committing to buy.
Micron has fallen significantly from its all-time high near $1,200 last month to $777, representing a 35-40% drawdown. The host attributes this to unwinding leverage in the semiconductor trade rather than a change in long-term fundamentals.
Micron is expected to rebound alongside AMD, with the host assigning an 80% probability to revisiting roughly $1,200. He gives progressively lower odds to $1,500 and $2,000 and warns that unusually strong memory pricing will eventually reverse.
5 predictions from this thesis
“When they start going flatline, you know, you are you got to already have moved on. You got to already have moved on because by the flatline cycle comes, the stocks are already down 50, 60, 70, 80%, depending upon what type of company you're in at that particular time, right?”
“I think there's a lower probability of that, I put that at about 20% probability in terms of Micron going 2,000 plus.”
“My opinion Micron goes to 1,500, I'd say that's like a coin flip. That's like a 50/50.”
“80% probability Micron sees that 1,200 ish range again, okay?”
“I believe Micron, MU, is going to bounce along with AMD, right?”
The host reports Micron's decline as part of the semiconductor selloff and broader rotation into software. He offers no separate forward-looking price or investment recommendation for Micron.
The host explicitly describes higher hyperscaler capital spending as bullish for Micron and memory suppliers. He supplies no share-price target or deadline.
Micron is cited as a past semiconductor winner and as exposed to an expected 2029–2030 chip-order slowdown. The host does not provide a current buy, sell or share-price forecast for Micron.
Micron's recent decline illustrates the volatile market environment. The host's remark about buying because of repeated twos is a joke rather than an investment call.
Micron has already benefited enormously from AI infrastructure spending and could remain strong if the spending cycle continues. The host nevertheless expects its stock price to peak in 2026, ahead of a later earnings peak.
3 predictions from this thesis
“Although, like I've said before, Micron, I feel like that stock tops this year in regards to stock price.”
“Micron continues to be strong.”
“So, let's say you've got a situation here with capex where people are going to become concerned that these companies have way over orderered and they're way over building infrastructure, right? Let's say that's a concern that pops up here. Okay, got it. What does that mean? Well, it means chips are going to sell off, right?”
Micron is expected to generate exceptional near-term earnings, but the host questions the sustainability of peak memory prices and margins. He treats its low forward P/E as a possible cyclical trap rather than giving an explicit stock-price forecast or current sell recommendation.