TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$711
“The fair value in September is 711.”@ 9:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is massively undervalued on a 90-day basis with fair value at $616 today and $711 by September, implying an immediate 95% upside and 125% upside by September as the Austin robotaxi launch acts as the catalyst.
Key arguments
- The Trump-Elon feud was manufactured or phony, already resolved by Trump signaling peace.
- Austin robotaxi commercial launch is imminent, possibly this Thursday.
- DCF model gives $806 fair value by end of 2025 assuming 100,000 robotaxis by end of 2026.
- Current $320 represents a 50% discount vs fair value of $616.
- 5% of 2024 free cash flow is the forcing function threshold at which analysts must upgrade price targets.
- Once 5% hit, Wall Street accepts $1,500-$2,500 targets and stock goes beyond $1,000.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Conservative analysts will think these assumptions are crazy.
- The entire thesis hinges on reaching 100,000 robotaxis within 18 months.
- The 5% threshold is gut-feel — it could be 3%, 7%, or more.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- September 2025 fair value
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $326.09
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $444.72
- Return
- +36.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 31% progress toward target $711. Price: $444.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 31% progress toward target $711. Price: $444.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Linear extrapolation of monthly fair value from DCF model.