LCIDBearunverifiable
Lucid City“I do feel they will be cutting this upcoming earnings their targets from 20,000 to realistically I can see it being around 12 in my opinion.”@ 3:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishMark Winteroff acknowledged in a podcast that the Gravity ramp is slower than expected due to supply chain issues, tariffs, and rare earth disputes. The speaker draws parallels to 2023 when Lucid cut guidance twice and anticipates a cut from 20,000 to ~12,000 at August 5th earnings, which would be received very negatively by the market.
Key arguments
- CEO admitted: 'ramp is slower than hoped due to supply chain issues, tariffs and rare earth disputes'
- Speaker anticipates guidance cut from 20K to 12K at August 5 earnings — parallel to 2023 double cut
- Short interest approaching all-time high at 392.67M shares (31.85% of float)
- Rare earth dispute with China is a new, incremental headwind Mark acknowledged
- Big money still buying dip per secondary market transactions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Mark says 'momentum is building' and Gravity feedback is phenomenal
- Rate cut probability increased to 24.8% for July 30 meeting — bullish for EVs
- Shorts overextending = potential squeeze if Lucid surprises positively
The call
- Date said
- Jun 26, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 5, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.