TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$894
“I think the price earnings ratio will actually go up even more in 2026 to 257. To be more specific, I future fair value is $894 for next year.”@ 4:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's high forward PE is explained by massive EPS growth projected at 70-137% annually from 2026 to 2031 driven by robotaxi and Optimus scaling. Jo's model fair value is 894 for 2026 with EPS rising from 2.10 today to 143 in 2031. Robotaxi deploys to 40,000 units by end of 2026, Optimus ramps to a million units per year by 2030.
Key arguments
- 2-year forward PE only 73x on 2027 earnings, 15x by 2031
- EPS growth 70% in 2026, 97% in 2027, 109% in 2028, 100% in 2029, 109% in 2030, 137% in 2031
- 40,000 robotaxis deployed by end of 2026
- Cybercab margin around 30,000 dollars per year per vehicle
- Optimus ramps to 1 million new units per year by 2030
- FSD 14.3 expected within 4-6 weeks
- Fair value of 894 per share for 2026
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 2024 EPS shrank 32% year over year
- 2025 EPS will likely decline another 15-20%
- Meta at 21x and Nvidia at 24x forward PE look much cheaper on surface
The call
- Date said
- Dec 1, 2025
- Timeframe
- next year (2026)
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $430.14
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$515.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Jo presents 894 as his model's fair-value output based on his robotaxi and Optimus scaling assumptions.