Why Tesla Stock Earnings Could EXPLODE in 2026 (And Beyond)
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 90%
Overall Thesis
Tesla's apparent nosebleed 189x forward PE collapses to 73x on 2027 earnings and 15x by 2031 once Jo's robotaxi and Optimus scaling assumptions flow through, with EPS growth of 70-137% every year from 2026-2031. Jo's fair value for 2026 is 894 per share, and he sees Tesla reaching 500 by December 2025.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishTesla's high forward PE is explained by massive EPS growth projected at 70-137% annually from 2026 to 2031 driven by robotaxi and Optimus scaling. Jo's model fair value is 894 for 2026 with EPS rising from 2.10 today to 143 in 2031. Robotaxi deploys to 40,000 units by end of 2026, Optimus ramps to a million units per year by 2030.
Key Arguments
- 2-year forward PE only 73x on 2027 earnings, 15x by 2031
- EPS growth 70% in 2026, 97% in 2027, 109% in 2028, 100% in 2029, 109% in 2030, 137% in 2031
- 40,000 robotaxis deployed by end of 2026
- Cybercab margin around 30,000 dollars per year per vehicle
- Optimus ramps to 1 million new units per year by 2030
- FSD 14.3 expected within 4-6 weeks
- Fair value of 894 per share for 2026
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $894next year (2026)
pendingDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —