TSLABearpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$360
“We should not be surprised if this thing falls back to 360 short term but I don't care too much about that this week.”
Thesis at the time
MixedJoe argues today's Tesla rally was mostly a market-wide relief rally (driven by no Iran strike, a bounce in oil, crypto, and semis) rather than Tesla-specific strength, since Tesla underperformed its historical beta relative to the NASDAQ move. He remains structurally very bullish long-term, but says the stock cannot make a real run to new highs until Cybercab production scales and NHTSA regulatory hurdles are resolved.
Key arguments
- Tesla is up only 3% versus a 2.26% NASDAQ move; given Tesla's beta of ~2 it should have been up 4.5%, so relative performance is weak.
- The rally is being driven by a broad market relief rally (Iran de-escalation, oil down, crypto up), not Tesla-specific strength.
- Cybercab scaling is the single biggest driver of the stock; the Cybercab tracker currently shows no meaningful scaling progress.
- A pending NHTSA rule change on brake pedals, if adopted before the ongoing Cybercab audit concludes, would be a major bullish catalyst allowing robotaxi scaling.
- FSD version 15 rollout in Cybercabs is central to unlocking scale, and is already 'month two' of refinement.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla will very likely fail the current NHTSA Cybercab audit as the rule is written today.
- The Cybercab tracker shows scaling is currently stalled, which caps near-term upside.
- A pullback to the 360 area short-term would not be surprising after such a strong market-wide rally.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analyst acknowledges not being 'incredibly bullish' on Tesla despite the day's gains
- Emphasizes that Tesla's outperformance is relative to market conditions, not fundamental strength
- Warns that if the market shows weakness, Tesla would show 'even more weakness'
- Notes Tesla is still down 17% year-to-date
- Acknowledges the rally is driven by geopolitical relief (Iran tensions) rather than company-specific catalysts
The call
- Date said
- Sep 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- this week
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$18.90 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged language ('should not be surprised') and explicit dismissal of the move's importance ('I don't care too much') signal low conviction.
Source
Is Tesla Stock BACK ON TRACK?
Said on Sep 21, 2026Open on YouTube ↗