The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“this is where you will see a very significant pullback probably to around that 250 range at the very least in my opinion”@ 7:38 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- May 3, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- May 10, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid achieved a meaningful technical milestone by breaking above its 50-day moving average for the first time in a long period, but the speaker is concerned that retail's Q&A questions for earnings (focused on profitability, stock performance, and affordable models) will yield vague non-answers from Peter. Short utilization is at 100% with 270.63M shares short, meaning the position is extremely expensive to maintain at 199% cost to borrow, creating pressure. The market is pricing in some positive surprises (calls above $3.50 for May 10 expiry) but puts anticipate sub-$2.00 in a downside scenario.
Key arguments
- LCID finally broke above 50-day moving average — important technical milestone
- Shorts paying 199% cost-to-borrow to maintain 270.63M shares short — expensive to hold
- Options showing extreme bimodal expectations: calls above $3.50 vs puts below $2.00 for May 10 expiry
- Market anticipating Tesla-style earnings where future guidance matters more than current metrics
- OEM question is the best retail Q for earnings — if Peter hints at non-PIF partnership it would be a major catalyst
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gravity is the only real catalyst and won't deliver until end of 2024 — no short-term operational news
- Retail earnings questions are poor — focused on things Peter can't or won't answer
- If earnings disappoint, stock likely pulls back to $2.50 support
- Big money is not buying the pre-earnings dip — only 3 transactions above $100K today
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- May 3, 2024, 5:14 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before4.49
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before27.85
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-05-10
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 44% progress toward target $25. Price: $26.60.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before26.6
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- May 10, 2024
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.