Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“this is where you will see a very significant pullback probably to around that 250 range at the very least in my opinion”@ 7:38 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid achieved a meaningful technical milestone by breaking above its 50-day moving average for the first time in a long period, but the speaker is concerned that retail's Q&A questions for earnings (focused on profitability, stock performance, and affordable models) will yield vague non-answers from Peter. Short utilization is at 100% with 270.63M shares short, meaning the position is extremely expensive to maintain at 199% cost to borrow, creating pressure. The market is pricing in some positive surprises (calls above $3.50 for May 10 expiry) but puts anticipate sub-$2.00 in a downside scenario.
Key arguments
- LCID finally broke above 50-day moving average — important technical milestone
- Shorts paying 199% cost-to-borrow to maintain 270.63M shares short — expensive to hold
- Options showing extreme bimodal expectations: calls above $3.50 vs puts below $2.00 for May 10 expiry
- Market anticipating Tesla-style earnings where future guidance matters more than current metrics
- OEM question is the best retail Q for earnings — if Peter hints at non-PIF partnership it would be a major catalyst
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gravity is the only real catalyst and won't deliver until end of 2024 — no short-term operational news
- Retail earnings questions are poor — focused on things Peter can't or won't answer
- If earnings disappoint, stock likely pulls back to $2.50 support
- Big money is not buying the pre-earnings dip — only 3 transactions above $100K today
The call
- Date said
- May 3, 2024
- Deadline
- May 10, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $27.85
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $26.60
- Return
- +4.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 44% progress toward target $25. Price: $26.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 44% progress toward target $25. Price: $26.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.