Behind the video
What is Happening w Lucid TODAY │ Lucid Q1 Earnings Coming SOON ⚠️ Lucid Stock Analysis
Overall Thesis
Lucid is flat ahead of Q1 earnings with Lucid finally breaking above the 50-day moving average, but the speaker worries that uninspiring retail questions posed to management will produce vague answers and a post-earnings selloff if Peter doesn't deliver surprise guidance.
Narratives
LCIDLucid MotorsLucid achieved a meaningful technical milestone by breaking above its 50-day moving average for the first time in a long period, but the speaker is concerned that retail's Q&A questions for earnings (focused on profitability, stock performance, and affordable models) will yield vague non-answers from Peter. Short utilization is at 100% with 270.63M shares short, meaning the position is extremely expensive to maintain at 199% cost to borrow, creating pressure. The market is pricing in some positive surprises (calls above $3.50 for May 10 expiry) but puts anticipate sub-$2.00 in a downside scenario.
Key Arguments
- LCID finally broke above 50-day moving average — important technical milestone
- Shorts paying 199% cost-to-borrow to maintain 270.63M shares short — expensive to hold
- Options showing extreme bimodal expectations: calls above $3.50 vs puts below $2.00 for May 10 expiry
- Market anticipating Tesla-style earnings where future guidance matters more than current metrics
- OEM question is the best retail Q for earnings — if Peter hints at non-PIF partnership it would be a major catalyst
Risks acknowledged
- Gravity is the only real catalyst and won't deliver until end of 2024 — no short-term operational news
- Retail earnings questions are poor — focused on things Peter can't or won't answer
- If earnings disappoint, stock likely pulls back to $2.50 support
- Big money is not buying the pre-earnings dip — only 3 transactions above $100K today