The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$20
Said $2· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“it does look as though that it is wanting to move to the next leg lower which would be ultimately sub $2 as I brought up based on the Elliot wave technicals”@ 6:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jun 30, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Institutions are selling LCID not buying on the last day of Q2 despite expected rebalancing, with shorts adding 5.97M shares to approach all-time highs. Chinese EV makers are lowering guidance, Tesla Q2 expected to disappoint, and LCID is below all key moving averages with the next downside target around sub-$2 based on Elliott wave technicals.
Key arguments
- All three secondary market transactions on last day of Q2 are sells — no institutional rebalancing buying
- Shorts at 399.39M shares (32.39% of float), near all-time highs
- Chinese EV makers lowering guidance for 2025 — sector-wide demand concerns
- Deutsche Bank sees Tesla Q2 as a miss — will trickle to other EVs
- LCID below all key moving averages (50, 100, 200-day), Elliott wave targeting sub-$2
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Rate cut signals from Morgan Stanley and Fed speakers theoretically bullish for rate-sensitive EVs
- Q2 rebalancing could come Monday or Tuesday instead
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jun 30, 2025, 6:14 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before6.16
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.1
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-08-29
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +6.2%.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before19.8
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.