LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$5.87
“Right now with that 692, it is currently trading between well, actually below this S2 or below this S3. But looking at the classic, between this S2 and this S3. So, 587. That's kind of what we can look forward to unless something does dramatically change.”@ 11:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid is in a 'massive death spiral' — relative-strength-wise, weak even vs Rivian on a green-market day. Host's read: Wall Street isn't buying mgmt's claim that the Middle East / oil situation doesn't affect Ampere 2 supply chain, and the repeated dilution pattern has shareholders distrusting the cash runway story. Next technical support $5.87 (below S3). A Tesla earnings flop tonight would trigger 'armageddon' tomorrow.
Key arguments
- Lucid down 2.67% on a +1% S&P / +1.6% Nasdaq / +3.8% Rivian day — pure relative weakness
- Short interest 27.33% of float (46.35M shares); shorts adding 684k today
- Net option premium -$498k — bearish flow
- Post-Tesla-earnings expected move 16.42% (~$1 in either direction)
- Bull consensus has collapsed to $7.50-8 (from higher earlier); bear consensus sub-$6.50
- Big money transactions on secondary all sells; dark-pool +$100k prints likely tied to short flows
- Analyst break-even expectations pushed to 2031 (not even profitability)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — relief rally possible on any positive catalyst
- Uber 11.52% ownership disclosure (13G) is structurally bullish if validated
- New CEO hasn't publicly debuted — earnings could be a reset moment
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — a news catalyst could trigger a sharp relief rally
- Uber 13G (11.52% ownership) is a genuine positive despite shorts suppressing it
- New CEO may debut a reset at upcoming earnings
The call
- Date said
- Apr 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- unless something dramatically changes
- Deadline
- May 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $7.11
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $5.87
- Return
- +17.4%
- Notes
- Target ≤$5.87 reached on 2026-04-29. Price: $5.87. Return: +17.4%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$5.87 reached on 2026-04-29. Price: $5.87. Return: +17.4%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
'That's what we can look forward to' is near-direct for a technical analyst; tempered by the 'unless something changes' caveat. Concrete level ($5.87) named.