Wall Street Calling BS on Lucid │ Retail Posed Questions to Mgmt │ MAX Lucid Dilution...
Overall Thesis
Lucid erased yesterday's Uber-13G pop (-2.67% today) despite broader market strength. Host's read: Wall Street is calling BS on mgmt's 'war isn't affecting Ampere 2' claim — and on the dilution pattern. Short interest 27.33% of float and rising again post-dilution-reset. Next technical support $5.87. If Tesla's after-hours earnings disappoint, expect 'absolute armageddon' for Lucid tomorrow.
Narratives
Lucid is in a 'massive death spiral' — relative-strength-wise, weak even vs Rivian on a green-market day. Host's read: Wall Street isn't buying mgmt's claim that the Middle East / oil situation doesn't affect Ampere 2 supply chain, and the repeated dilution pattern has shareholders distrusting the cash runway story. Next technical support $5.87 (below S3). A Tesla earnings flop tonight would trigger 'armageddon' tomorrow.
Key Arguments
- Lucid down 2.67% on a +1% S&P / +1.6% Nasdaq / +3.8% Rivian day — pure relative weakness
- Short interest 27.33% of float (46.35M shares); shorts adding 684k today
- Net option premium -$498k — bearish flow
- Post-Tesla-earnings expected move 16.42% (~$1 in either direction)
- Bull consensus has collapsed to $7.50-8 (from higher earlier); bear consensus sub-$6.50
- Big money transactions on secondary all sells; dark-pool +$100k prints likely tied to short flows
- Analyst break-even expectations pushed to 2031 (not even profitability)
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — a news catalyst could trigger a sharp relief rally
- Uber 13G (11.52% ownership) is a genuine positive despite shorts suppressing it
- New CEO may debut a reset at upcoming earnings