Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25.50
Said $2.55· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“255 is going to be that next strong target/resistance which could be touched today”@ 8:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishGravity supply-chain issues confirmed via customer email showing unavailability of a tech package, causing Lucid to offer upgrades or downgrades — mirroring Air launch problems. A Robert Baird analyst raised the $3 price target while lowering revenue estimates, which paradoxically lowers the bar for Lucid to beat. Lucid sits exactly on the 50-day MA ($245); closing above it for two consecutive days has historically led to 30-40% runs. Shorts increasing 4.64M shares the prior day shows ongoing suppression, but 20,000 contracts at $2.50 strike expiring Friday could force a bump.
Key arguments
- Closing above 50-day MA for two consecutive days historically triggers 30-40% upside run
- Robert Baird $3 price target with lowered revenue consensus makes it easier for Lucid to beat expectations
- Supply-chain issues are repeating the Air launch playbook and should be resolved relatively quickly
- 20,000 options open interest at $2.50 strike could force market-maker buying if Lucid closes at/above $2.50 Friday
- New marketing hire and ongoing events show increased marketing focus per Mark's vision
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Beyond Meat marketing hire is questioned due to that company's poor track record
- Gravity supply-chain issues are an exact repeat of Air launch problems
- Shorts increased 4.64M shares the prior day, showing continued aggressive short selling
The call
- Date said
- Apr 25, 2025
- Deadline
- Apr 25, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25.5. Price: $25.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25.5. Price: $25.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.