KEY Levels for Lucid to CLOSE ABOVE | Lucid Gravity Supply Chain Issue ⚠️ Important Lucid Update
Overall Thesis
Lucid is at a critical juncture at the 50-day MA with confirmed supply-chain issues for Gravity and a new analyst $3 price target; closing above the 50-day for two consecutive days would historically trigger a 30-40% move higher.
Narratives
Gravity supply-chain issues confirmed via customer email showing unavailability of a tech package, causing Lucid to offer upgrades or downgrades — mirroring Air launch problems. A Robert Baird analyst raised the $3 price target while lowering revenue estimates, which paradoxically lowers the bar for Lucid to beat. Lucid sits exactly on the 50-day MA ($245); closing above it for two consecutive days has historically led to 30-40% runs. Shorts increasing 4.64M shares the prior day shows ongoing suppression, but 20,000 contracts at $2.50 strike expiring Friday could force a bump.
Key Arguments
- Closing above 50-day MA for two consecutive days historically triggers 30-40% upside run
- Robert Baird $3 price target with lowered revenue consensus makes it easier for Lucid to beat expectations
- Supply-chain issues are repeating the Air launch playbook and should be resolved relatively quickly
- 20,000 options open interest at $2.50 strike could force market-maker buying if Lucid closes at/above $2.50 Friday
- New marketing hire and ongoing events show increased marketing focus per Mark's vision