TubeRank
TSLABullpending
Michael TylerMichael Tyler

Target Price

$550

“But I only think Tesla will be like between $5 and $600 before the midterms.”

Thesis at the time

Bullish

Tesla's -4% day is macro, not company-specific. Q1 earnings had plenty to love — FSD subscription records, China FSD approval tracking, Optimus production lines installing August-September with production by end-of-year, cyber cab rolling off line. Capex jump to $25B is bullish, not bearish. Near-term Tesla holding 20-day MA support, testing 50-day MA resistance. Target: $500-600 pre-midterms, $900+ by early 2027. Don't overleverage; most of the move comes late-2026 into Q1 2027.

Key arguments

  • Today's -4% is macro / Iran-driven, not TSLA company-specific
  • Q1: record FSD subscriptions, robotaxi expansion on track for 12 cities by EOY, FSD China approval progressing
  • Optimus production lines installing Aug-Sep, production end of year
  • Capex jump $20B → $25B: bullish, not bearish — Tesla has headroom
  • Technical: holding 20-day MA is key support; 50-day MA is next resistance
  • Expected most of the upside comes after midterms — late-2026 into Q1 2027

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Sentiment reset on capex — people fear it keeps increasing quarter-over-quarter
  • Stock could retest 20-day MA break below = near-term pain
  • Trump/Iran macro setup is fragile

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Trade resolves on 20-day / 50-day MA — break below 20-day = pain
  • Won't move much before midterms — patience required
  • Trump-tweet risk factor is significant

The call

Date said
Apr 23, 2026
Timeframe
before the midterms
Deadline
Nov 3, 2026
Price at prediction
$386.42
Current price (live)
$378.90$171.10 below target
Confidence
medium
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
pending

Confidence Reasoning

Specific range ($500-600) with specific horizon (before midterms). Using $550 as the midpoint target. 'Only' + 'like between' tempers certainty compared to the $900 EOY call.

Source

Tesla Stock is FALLING Again.... (Stock Market is SCARED)
Said on Apr 23, 2026Open on YouTube ↗
View full video analysisView YouTuber profile