Behind the video
Post SPCX Earnings | Iran, Tesla, Rates, AI Chips
Overall Thesis
Kevin expects a euphoric stock-market rally after an Iran deal and remains broadly bullish for approximately the next year, arguing that rising GPU rental rates demonstrate genuine AI demand. His longer-term concern is that AI-driven job losses eventually weaken consumption, stocks and funding for capital expenditure; these broad market forecasts are not assigned to an unnamed index.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceXKevin interprets SpaceX's initial post-earnings strength as institutional acceptance of its large funding requirements, while repeatedly noting rejection near 165.23. He views increased compute revenue and prepayments as evidence of real AI demand rather than an imminent collapse.
Key Arguments
- The stock initially approached the upper end of the previously identified trading range.
- Superintelligence compute revenue and prepayments support his argument that customers are committing substantial money.
- SpaceX's results reinforce his view that AI infrastructure demand remains strong.
Risks acknowledged
- The initial move rejected near the upper technical line.
- He was surprised institutions supported the stock amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- A future labor-market downturn could undermine the financing needed for continued capital expenditure.
ORCLOracleKevin disputes the argument that Oracle is near financial distress and could trigger an AI collapse. He cites improved profitability and bill-paying capacity, while explicitly saying he does not own the stock.
Key Arguments
- Reported net income increased from approximately $2.9 billion to $4.7 billion.
- Margins are stable.
- He says Oracle now has enough money to pay its bills.
Risks acknowledged
- Earlier concerns about insufficient bill-paying capacity were more justified.
- Critics point to AI leverage and financing risks.
- Improved business finances alone do not establish a stock-return forecast.
Kevin treats ASML's expanding backlog as an early indicator that AI infrastructure spending is continuing rather than rolling over. This is an operational demand assessment without a separate share-price or investment recommendation.
Key Arguments
- He describes the backlog as nearly tripling.
- Expensive chipmaking equipment orders indicate continuing infrastructure commitments.
- The backlog supports his rejection of an imminent AI spending collapse.
Risks acknowledged
- A future funding slowdown could affect the broader capital-expenditure cycle.
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustDiscussing the Qs near repeated resistance around 724–725, Kevin expects an Iran deal to produce a V-shaped recovery. He questions whether the current strength can persist without that deal.
Key Arguments
- The Qs have repeatedly rejected the 724–725 area.
- Kevin believes an Iran deal is not fully priced in.
- SpaceX's post-earnings strength is helping the Qs.
Risks acknowledged
- There is no Iran deal yet.
- Recent resistance has prevented a sustained breakout.
- Kevin explicitly allows that his assessment of deal pricing could be wrong.
Predictions (1)
NVDANvidiaKevin uses rising rental rates for Nvidia's older and newer GPUs to argue that AI demand and practical productivity are accelerating. He rejects an imminent GPU depreciation cliff without making a specific investment-direction call on Nvidia shares.
Key Arguments
- A100 rental rates have risen despite the chips' age.
- H100 rental rates are approximately 15% above late-2025 levels.
- GB200 rental rates are approximately 39% above late-2025 levels.
- Open-weight models and useful AI agents expand demand for existing hardware.
Risks acknowledged
- Chips should eventually depreciate.
- Power availability and installation constraints remain issues.
- A later labor-market downturn could slow AI capital expenditure.
NBISNebius GroupKevin argues that Nebius is financially stronger than critics suggest because depreciation accounts for its reported operating loss. He presents this as a rebuttal to an AI-collapse narrative and states that he has no investment stake in the argument.
Key Arguments
- Revenue growth supports his assessment of operating demand.
- Adding back chip depreciation changes his interpretation of profitability.
- He rejects the claim that Nebius is on the edge of default.
Risks acknowledged
- The company reports an operating loss.
- Chip depreciation is a real expense and may become more consequential later.
- His discussion does not state where Nebius shares will trade.
CRWDCrowdStrikeKevin says cybersecurity incidents tend to support cybersecurity stocks, then observes that CrowdStrike has returned to its previous trading channel after a breakout. He does not turn that sector observation into a distinct forward price call on CrowdStrike.
Key Arguments
- The disclosed PHP vulnerability highlights continuing cybersecurity needs.
- CrowdStrike's breakout has retraced into its earlier channel.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has recently declined despite favorable attention to cybersecurity.
NFLXNetflixKevin cites Netflix's workforce reduction as one of several signs worth monitoring for labor-market deterioration. He also observes a failed stock recovery; the played guest commentary about advertising growth is not adopted as a Netflix investment forecast.
Key Arguments
- Netflix reportedly cut approximately 6% of its workforce.
- Layoffs could become more damaging if the economy loses its ability to absorb displaced workers.
- The stock attempted a recovery and rejected.
Risks acknowledged
- Layoffs happen routinely and do not independently establish an economic downturn.
- Guest business commentary does not establish Kevin's own stock-direction call.
TSLATeslaKevin briefly observes Tesla trading higher during the session. He provides no separate Tesla valuation, investment recommendation or forward stock-price expectation.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is described as up roughly three percent during the livestream.
Kevin discusses Cloudflare's cybersecurity update alongside a major PHP vulnerability. He notes that its chart resembles CrowdStrike's but is weaker, with the lower channel boundary lost and the 100-day moving average providing support.
Key Arguments
- Security incidents reinforce the importance of cybersecurity services.
- The stock is testing technical support after losing its lower channel boundary.
Risks acknowledged
- Its chart has weakened despite favorable sector attention.
Kevin highlights eBay's reported 9% workforce reduction as another labor-market warning worth tracking. He uses the announcement as macroeconomic evidence rather than forecasting eBay's investment returns.
Key Arguments
- The reported layoffs follow an earlier round of job cuts.
- Multiple companies cutting staff could become concerning if replacement jobs become scarce.
Risks acknowledged
- Individual layoff announcements are normal and do not prove a broad downturn.
Hedges & Caveats
- An Iran deal remains uncertain, and Kevin acknowledges that his assessment of its market impact could be wrong.
- The labor market is presently broadly okay; a severe deterioration is a risk rather than a certainty.
- GPU depreciation could eventually become a problem, but current rental-rate evidence does not support an imminent depreciation cliff.
- Monthly unemployment estimates can be volatile, and government job cuts may partly explain rising black unemployment.
- His rate-hike prediction-market position is small, and the prediction-market platform is a paid sponsor.
- Business optimism and broad market bullishness do not establish individual stock-price forecasts.