Behind the video
Selling Continues.. Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Geopolitics... the ELECTION
Overall Thesis
Kevin argues that an Iran agreement could shift the midterm elections toward divided government, while no agreement would make a Democratic sweep much more likely. He expects increased Democratic influence to delay data center construction and benefit renewable energy, against a backdrop of selling in AI hardware and financing concerns.
Narratives
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin highlights CoreWeave's sharp selloff and questions its ability to finance substantial future cash requirements. His comments express concern about financial risk without making a forward-looking call on its shares or bonds.
Key Arguments
- He describes renewed selling in CoreWeave shares and bonds.
- He cites approximately $35 billion of debt and expected cash burn of roughly $80 billion over three and a half years.
- He questions who will lend the company the additional money it needs.
Risks acknowledged
- He notes that Bank of America increased its revenue growth forecast based on higher prices.
- He acknowledges a temporary rebound in the shares during the prior session.
QQQMInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFKevin favors QQQM over QQQ because of its lower expense ratio. This is a relative cost preference rather than an absolute forecast of positive investment returns.
Key Arguments
- QQQM offers a lower fee than QQQ.
Risks acknowledged
- He characterizes the fee savings as modest.
AAPLAppleKevin monitors iPhone availability and reports delivery dates extending into late January. He relates this to an earlier product availability expectation without expressing a direction for Apple shares.
Key Arguments
- The latest availability check indicated January 25 delivery.
- He is watching whether delivery dates move further into the first quarter.
Risks acknowledged
- He treats further delays as uncertain and subject to additional checks.
Kevin names GE Vernova turbines as another option for powering data centers. He emphasizes long equipment lead times and financing constraints rather than forecasting the company's investment returns.
Key Arguments
- Turbines are an alternative to fuel cells for natural gas power generation.
- He describes power infrastructure lead times of two to three years.
- Higher interest rates make utility capacity expansion more difficult.
Risks acknowledged
- Demand for additional data center power remains substantial.
- He supports accelerating permits for projects away from residential areas.
TSLATeslaTesla gave up most of its premarket gains following a Roadster demonstration that Kevin describes favorably. He interprets Musk's political spending as an effort to preserve Republican influence and limit scrutiny affecting Musk's businesses and the Terafab buildout, without predicting Tesla's share direction.
Key Arguments
- Tesla surrendered most of its premarket gains after the Roadster demonstration.
- Kevin believes Musk's support for Ken Paxton aims to prevent a Democratic congressional sweep.
- Democratic investigations and disclosure requirements could slow projects associated with Musk.
Risks acknowledged
- Republicans are also adopting tougher rhetoric on data centers.
- A Democratic Congress would face presidential vetoes and limited ability to enact legislation.
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustKevin observes that QQQ lost the 725 level at the open as hardware stocks continued selling off. He also questions its fee advantage relative to QQQM, without setting a future price target or predicting a further decline.
Key Arguments
- QQQ broke below 725 shortly after the open.
- Selling was widespread across hardware and AI-related cybersecurity names.
- He identifies QQQM as a cheaper alternative for similar exposure.
Risks acknowledged
- He notes that QQQ remained away from the lower 715 level.
- He says the fee difference versus QQQM is small.
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFKevin observes that TLT is roughly flat and uses its movement to interpret changes in Treasury yields. He celebrates his earlier ten-year yield peak call near 5.27%, but does not explicitly translate it into a new TLT price or return prediction.
Key Arguments
- TLT was approximately flat during the stream.
- Ten-year yields were around 5.08%, below his earlier peak call.
- High yields constrain utility financing and infrastructure expansion.
Risks acknowledged
- He acknowledges that yields briefly exceeded his earlier peak level.
- He expresses hope that the peak holds and willingness to be wrong.
- Recent inflation readings remained hot.
BEBloom EnergyKevin identifies Bloom Energy fuel cells as one route to supplying data center power. He argues that equipment availability and construction delays limit near-term capacity expansion, without making an investment forecast for Bloom Energy.
Key Arguments
- Bloom Energy fuel cells use natural gas through a process distinct from combustion.
- Power equipment and plant setup can face multiyear delays.
- He doubts data centers will soon export enough surplus electricity to reduce consumer bills.
Risks acknowledged
- He expects substantial ongoing natural gas use.
- He expects data center development to continue despite delays.
Hedges & Caveats
- He repeatedly says he is willing to be wrong about an Iran agreement between October 20 and October 27.
- He expects data centers ultimately to be built despite potential regulatory and litigation delays.
- He acknowledges both Republicans and Democrats are adopting tougher rhetoric toward data centers.
- He warns that thinly traded prediction markets can be moved substantially by small bets.
- He considers a Republican sweep unlikely even with an Iran agreement.
- Sector optimism about solar does not identify a specific publicly traded investment.
- His Treasury yield peak discussion largely revisits an earlier call rather than providing a new instrument-specific price forecast.