Behind the video
The Stock Market & Morning After Election 2026.
Overall Thesis
Kevin views the Democratic election sweep as a buying opportunity, arguing that resilient employment and business activity support equities while housing policies favor real estate appreciation. He rejects fears that political opposition will derail AI infrastructure spending and identifies opportunities in discounted technology shares.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceX Class AKevin identifies SpaceX shares near the discussed $132 technical line as a buying opportunity. He also argues that a combined Tesla–SpaceX entity would be reasonably valued if the proposed acquisition proceeds, while dismissing fears that Texas politics will prevent its data centers from being built.
Key Arguments
- Shares regained the discussed $132 technical line in premarket trading.
- Data centers can relocate to Louisiana or other jurisdictions rather than being canceled.
- He considers the combined Tesla–SpaceX valuation attractive if the acquisition occurs.
Risks acknowledged
- The acquisition is uncertain.
- SpaceX may pay a premium for Tesla.
- Infrastructure expansion will require substantial borrowing.
- Texas permitting concerns could affect 13 gigawatts of planned development.
BTCBitcoinKevin believes the quoted 5% probability of Bitcoin returning to $100,000 before December is too low, especially if equities rally and an Iran agreement emerges. He identifies approximately $102,000 as the next stopping point, without assigning a firm deadline to that level.
Key Arguments
- A broader all-time-high rally could support Bitcoin.
- An Iran agreement could improve the backdrop.
- He regards the event-market probability of a near-term $100,000 return as unusually low.
Risks acknowledged
- The outcome may depend on an Iran agreement.
- The event contract could become worthless.
- His near-term scenario is expressed as a possibility rather than a certainty.
Predictions (1)
GOOGLAlphabetKevin characterizes Google shares around $287 as cheap while emphasizing that the company is not among his favorites. This is a qualified favorable valuation view without an explicit purchase commitment.
Key Arguments
- He regards the quoted share price as inexpensive.
Risks acknowledged
- Google is not one of his preferred investments.
Predictions (1)
Kevin uses historical post-midterm S&P 500 gains to support his broadly bullish equity outlook. The cited six- and twelve-month statistics describe past outcomes rather than an explicit forecast that the index will deliver those exact returns this time.
Key Arguments
- He cites consistently positive historical six- and twelve-month post-midterm returns.
- He highlights an approximately 13.9% historical average six-month gain.
- Employment, service-sector activity and GDP tracking support his favorable macro outlook.
Risks acknowledged
- The first three months following midterms can be volatile.
- Inflation and additional rate hikes remain risks.
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustKevin enthusiastically tracks QQQ approaching and breaking through $700 during the session. These are observations of current price action rather than a separate future price target.
Key Arguments
- The fund's advance illustrates the strong post-election technology rally.
Kevin links Lennar's rally to election outcomes and housing policies that he believes support property values and purchasing activity. His direct buy recommendation concerns real estate itself, rather than a separate forward-looking recommendation on Lennar shares.
Key Arguments
- Property-tax exemptions and limits could support housing demand.
- Down-payment assistance could increase purchasing capacity.
- An eventual Iran agreement could lower oil prices and ease interest-rate pressure.
Risks acknowledged
- Yields remain elevated.
- Affordable-housing restrictions can impair individual property values and flexibility.
Kevin celebrates loanDepot's sharp intraday gain alongside other housing-related stocks. He frames the move through policy and rate expectations without issuing a distinct future share-price call.
Key Arguments
- Housing policies and expectations of eventual rate relief support investor enthusiasm.
Risks acknowledged
- Mortgage-related equities remain dependent on interest rates.
Kevin points to Peloton's rally as an example of stronger consumer-stock sentiment following the election. He adopts the explanation that fewer social-program cuts could support consumption, without making a separate return forecast for the shares.
Key Arguments
- Preserved social spending could support consumer demand.
Risks acknowledged
- Financial conditions remain difficult for lower-income renters.
TSLATeslaKevin considers Tesla overvalued as a standalone company but attractive under the proposed SpaceX acquisition scenario. His favorable investment view depends on a premium paid by SpaceX and a reasonably priced combined entity.
Key Arguments
- An acquisition premium could make Tesla attractive at current prices.
- The combined Tesla–SpaceX valuation would be reasonable in his assessment.
- He expects data centers to be built despite local political opposition.
Risks acknowledged
- Tesla is overvalued on a standalone basis.
- The acquisition is not assured.
- Data center construction requires substantial borrowing.
Predictions (1)
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesKevin praises AMD's earnings and describes its shares as a steal despite their intraday gain. His investment enthusiasm sits within a broader view that AI hardware is attractively priced and infrastructure spending will continue.
Key Arguments
- He considers AMD's earnings very good.
- He describes the current stock valuation as a steal.
- He rejects the thesis that election results will materially derail AI capital spending.
Risks acknowledged
- AI infrastructure stocks face political and permitting concerns.
Predictions (1)
AAPLAppleKevin praises Apple's earnings and pricing power while observing a strong share-price rally. The explicit instruction to own rather than trade Apple comes from the broadcast he plays, so it is not extracted as his prediction.
Key Arguments
- He considers Apple's earnings fantastic.
- He believes pricing power was strong despite other investors' concerns.
Risks acknowledged
- Other investors were concerned about Apple's results and margins.
Kevin cites historical Nasdaq-100 gains exceeding 30% in the year after midterm elections as context for his optimism. He does not expressly promise that return for the coming year.
Key Arguments
- Historical post-midterm performance supports his bullish framing.
Risks acknowledged
- The statistic describes historical performance rather than a guaranteed future result.
Kevin uses Super Micro Computer's commentary to argue that international AI infrastructure demand is only beginning to expand. He identifies customer concentration risk but does not make a distinct stock-price or purchase call on SMCI.
Key Arguments
- Large customers are expanding globally.
- Europe, Asia and the Middle East could extend the AI data center investment cycle.
- He expects political constraints to relocate infrastructure spending rather than stop it.
Risks acknowledged
- One large customer represented 44% of quarterly revenue.
Kevin highlights Rocket's post-election rally as part of the strength in rate-sensitive housing stocks. He mentions chart levels around $14.01 and $16 without clearly predicting that shares will reach either level.
Key Arguments
- Housing-supportive policies could improve activity.
- Lower rates following a potential Iran agreement would benefit mortgage demand.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is sensitive to interest rates, which have not materially declined.
OPENOpendoor TechnologiesKevin highlights Opendoor's rally as evidence that investors see the election outcome as favorable for real estate. His discussion describes the current move and policy backdrop without a distinct stock recommendation.
Key Arguments
- He expects Democratic housing policies to support property prices.
Kevin highlights Etsy's intraday rally and prior recovery while connecting consumer-stock enthusiasm to social spending expectations. He does not state a distinct future price target or current buy instruction for Etsy.
Key Arguments
- Fewer cuts to social programs could support consumption.
- He observes that Etsy has doubled since February.
Risks acknowledged
- Lower-income consumers remain under financial pressure.
Kevin observes Brent approaching $100 after a recent decline and expects an eventual Iran agreement to bring oil prices down further. The agreement is a conditional catalyst with no firm completion date.
Key Arguments
- An Iran agreement would ease the war-related oil price pressure.
- He thinks Democrats will push the administration toward an agreement.
Risks acknowledged
- Immediate pressure to secure an agreement has diminished after the election.
- Near-term agreement probabilities are weaker than longer-term probabilities.
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Inflation, fuel costs and potential Federal Reserve hikes remain risks despite strong economic activity.
- The first three months after midterms can be volatile; historical index returns are not explicit future return targets.
- An Iran agreement could take longer now that immediate election pressure has passed.
- The proposed Tesla–SpaceX acquisition may not occur, and Tesla is overvalued on a standalone basis.
- AI infrastructure expansion requires substantial borrowing and may face geographic relocation.
- Super Micro Computer has customer concentration risk, with one customer representing 44% of quarterly revenue.
- Lower-income renters are experiencing financial stress despite broader economic strength.
- He states that his real estate comments are not personalized advice and carry no guarantees.