Behind the video
Why SpaceX Stock Will DROP MORE This Week
Overall Thesis
The host is strategically bullish on SpaceX but expects share unlocks to create near-term declines and prolonged price suppression, which he is trading through a tactical short before returning to long exposure. He also endorses bullish Tesla and Micron positions and favors Strategy as a vehicle for his bullish Bitcoin outlook.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceXThe host expects unlock-related selling to depress SpaceX shares over the coming days and again around the larger late-October or November unlock. He remains strongly bullish over the longer term, endorses a $300 valuation outlook, and plans to transition from tactical shorts to buying.
Key Arguments
- He estimates that 10–20% of newly unlocked shares will be sold as employees and other holders diversify.
- Higher share prices should encourage more aggressive selling.
- Previous unlocks produced initial declines followed by ceilings created by limit sell orders.
- He expects the largest unlock to create more persistent selling pressure.
- He believes SpaceX can control both compute infrastructure and the user-facing layer of the AI stack.
Risks acknowledged
- Unexpected positive announcements could absorb selling and push shares higher.
- The strategically bullish outlook makes short positions risky.
- Lower prices could reduce sellers' willingness to sell.
- The market may anticipate some unlock selling before the actual unlock.
- The host cannot quantify the large unlock's effect confidently before seeing the prevailing market conditions.
Predictions (8)
TSLATeslaThe host maintains a large bullish Tesla position through core shares and short puts and expects a sustained breakout above $380. He views potential German driving-assistance approval and autonomous-driving progress favorably, while reserving judgment on trading the upcoming event.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is his largest position and roughly 40% of his long-term portfolio.
- He sees resilience around $380 and an uptrend suggesting a durable breakout.
- He considers German regulatory negotiations constructive.
- He describes autonomous driving as central to Tesla's value.
Risks acknowledged
- He sometimes writes tactical short calls against his core holding when the shares become extended.
- He has not decided how to trade the upcoming event.
- Options require time and may be unsuitable for viewers who do not want to manage them.
MUMicron TechnologyThe host endorses his substantial bullish Micron exposure through short puts and regards the recent sharp decline as excessive. He celebrates the subsequent rebound but only attributes the $3,000 target to an analyst.
Key Arguments
- Micron is his third-largest position.
- He considers the selloff associated with a Taiwan strike excessive.
- Micron's rebound offset losses elsewhere in his portfolio.
Risks acknowledged
- The shares initially fell sharply after he established the position.
- The cited $3,000 analyst target is not independently adopted as his own target.
Predictions (1)
BTCBitcoinThe host explicitly states that he is bullish on Bitcoin. He accepts direct ownership for very long-term investors but generally favors Strategy as a vehicle with greater upside potential.
Key Arguments
- Explicit bullish investment view.
- Direct ownership can suit very long-term Bitcoin investors.
Risks acknowledged
- Bitcoin is described as tricky.
- The host prefers Strategy to Bitcoin index funds for additional upside.
HOODRobinhood MarketsRobinhood appears only in a brief account of portfolio losses. The host does not provide an investment thesis or forward-looking directional call.
Key Arguments
- Robinhood contributed a small loss during the session discussed.
MSTRStrategyThe host recommends Strategy over Bitcoin index funds as a bullish Bitcoin proxy. He expects potential multiple expansion to provide additional upside when Bitcoin rises.
Key Arguments
- Strategy can benefit from Bitcoin appreciation and an expanding valuation multiple.
- He considers it a well-positioned Bitcoin proxy.
- He explicitly prefers it to Bitcoin index funds.
Risks acknowledged
- Bitcoin is a tricky asset.
- Direct Bitcoin ownership can make sense for very long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts.
- Strategy was his largest monetary loser on the day discussed.
NVDANvidiaNvidia is identified as a core stock holding and the host's second-largest holding in pure shares. He reports a small daily loss without making a separate forward-looking return forecast or recommendation.
Key Arguments
- Maintains a core share position.
- Nvidia is his second-largest holding in pure stocks.
Risks acknowledged
- The position lost a small amount during the session discussed.
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesA viewer asks for AMD to be added to the host's research list. The host says a good analysis has not yet been completed and offers no directional investment view.
Key Arguments
- The host acknowledges that AMD has not yet received adequate analysis.
Hedges & Caveats
- An unexpected Elon Musk announcement could overwhelm SpaceX selling pressure and drive the shares higher.
- The SpaceX short is deliberately brief because the host considers the stock strategically bullish.
- The size and duration of unlock-related declines depend on the prevailing share price and how much selling investors anticipate.
- The host does not provide a firm SpaceX entry price and says he needs to be closer to the large unlock to estimate its impact.
- A decline into the low $160s or $150s is tentative rather than a firm price or timing promise.
- Bitcoin is described as a tricky asset.
- Many Tesla price examples in the options lesson are hypothetical illustrations rather than forecasts.