Behind the video
I Sold it all. I’m 100% out‼️
Overall Thesis
The host views weak retail interest in individual stocks as a contrarian opportunity for long-term investors. After exiting PayPal, he is reallocating capital into Netflix, SoFi, e.l.f. Beauty and Celsius, with explicit long-term price expectations for Netflix and SoFi.
Narratives
The host reports having completely exited PayPal after its stock failed to deliver his previously expected doubling or tripling. He attributes the disappointment to slow growth, disruption concerns and a lack of interest from both growth and value investors.
Key Arguments
- Single-digit revenue growth has reduced its appeal to growth investors.
- Low earnings multiples have not attracted enough value-investor demand.
- Investors worry about competition from alternative payment products.
- He regards the position as an opportunity cost relative to his other investments.
Risks acknowledged
- He describes PayPal as a good company with stable operations and continued revenue growth.
- He believes his purchase valuation was reasonable.
- He does not suggest bankruptcy or a collapse of the business.
ELFe.l.f. BeautyThe host considers e.l.f. a compelling current buying opportunity around $74.57 despite its large gain since his original purchase. He expects substantial further upside and places it among his strongest long-term opportunities outside major technology companies.
Key Arguments
- He is still willing to add shares after a roughly tenfold gain from his original entry.
- He describes the current valuation as a steal.
- It received one of his highest investment rankings.
Risks acknowledged
- Adding shares substantially increases his historical cost basis.
Predictions (1)
TSLATeslaThe host uses Tesla's weak multiyear stock performance to explain diminished retail enthusiasm for individual stocks. He makes no new Tesla investment recommendation or return forecast.
Key Arguments
- Tesla can attract new investors through its association with self-driving vehicles and robotics.
- Its lack of sustained gains from late 2021 has reduced that excitement.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has risen substantially from its 2022 lows.
CAKEThe Cheesecake FactoryThe host notes the stock's recent strength and reiterates a standing recommendation to buy below $100. He provides no forecast of where the stock will trade.
Key Arguments
- He regards prices below $100 as a buying opportunity.
Predictions (1)
NFLXNetflixThe host remains an active buyer despite slowing growth and plans another approximately $50,000 purchase following the earnings selloff. He expects a long-term share price of $200, supported by potential programming successes, price increases and advertising growth.
Key Arguments
- New programming could reaccelerate revenue growth.
- Subscription price increases could improve growth.
- Advertising offers a lengthy growth runway.
- He intends to use the earnings-related decline to increase his position.
Risks acknowledged
- Revenue growth has slowed and guidance implies further deceleration.
- Growth investors may leave as growth approaches single digits.
- Several expense categories grew faster than revenue.
- EPS growth trailed revenue growth, earning the report only a B grade.
Predictions (1)
SOFISoFi TechnologiesThe host endorses buying SoFi around $17.52 despite substantially increasing his cost basis and expects a long-term share price of $50–$100. He believes its younger customer base, expanding product relationships and eventual wealth transfers can turn it into a major financial institution.
Key Arguments
- He remains willing to buy at substantially higher prices than his initial purchases.
- Younger customers could become much more valuable as their income and wealth grow.
- Cross-selling products can deepen customer relationships.
- Inherited wealth could move from traditional banks into customers' preferred newer institutions.
- He credits Anthony Noto with establishing strong long-term foundations.
Risks acknowledged
- Young customers currently have limited assets.
- The demographic thesis may take many years to affect financial results.
- Management must navigate future recessions.
- Traditional banks retain large customer relationships and substantial existing wealth.
CELHCelsius HoldingsThe host endorses Celsius as one of his best long-term investment opportunities and expects the stock to perform well. His thesis includes the Celsius and Alani brands, broad distribution and a potential Rockstar revival.
Key Arguments
- He reports a substantial purchase around $29.77.
- Celsius received one of his highest investment rankings.
- The business has multiple brands and extensive distribution.
Risks acknowledged
- Reviving Rockstar remains uncertain.
Predictions (1)
SPCXSpaceXThe host describes SpaceX's public listing as an event that attracted people who rarely buy individual stocks. He says the subsequent decline dampened their enthusiasm, without forecasting its future price.
Key Arguments
- The listing attracted investors outside the usual stock-picking audience.
- He reports an approximately 40% decline over the prior month.
Hedges & Caveats
- Low retail participation need not reverse immediately.
- PayPal demonstrates that reasonable valuations and a functioning business do not guarantee attractive stock returns.
- Netflix's slowing growth and expense growth weaken its near-term earnings appeal.
- SoFi must navigate future recessions.
- The long-term stock targets have no explicit calendar deadlines.
- Celsius's ability to revive Rockstar is expressed as a hope.