Behind the video
I might buy a NEW STOCK‼️
Overall Thesis
The host favors Netflix's execution and valuation, expects further ELF appreciation, and is considering Occidental Petroleum for a five-year dividend and capital-return opportunity. He presents opposing conditional Alphabet earnings reactions, flags ServiceNow guidance risks, and expects substantial further downside in SpaceX before a later bottom.
Narratives
ELFe.l.f. BeautyDespite a substantial recent rally, the host expects ELF to appreciate further. His outlook extends through the remainder of 2026 and subsequent years.
Key Arguments
- Recent share-price momentum has been strong.
- The host believes substantial additional upside remains.
Predictions (1)
NFLXNetflixThe host considers Netflix an easy buy and is actively investing fresh money. He attributes its attractiveness to consistent execution, improving financial metrics, and a lower historical valuation.
Key Arguments
- Revenue, margins, free cash flow per share, and operating income have improved.
- The historical price-to-earnings multiple has declined.
- Subscriber growth, pricing increases, and advertising provide established earnings drivers.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has delivered negative returns since November 2021.
Predictions (1)
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesAMD illustrates how rapidly investor sentiment and investment results can change. The host discusses past gains and uses its valuation as a comparison for SpaceX, without making a new AMD investment call.
Key Arguments
- His public-account gain exceeds one million dollars.
- Previously hostile sentiment reversed substantially within approximately fifteen months.
- Its sales multiple is substantially below the multiple he attributes to SpaceX.
GOOGLAlphabetThe host expects strong operating results but sees capital expenditure guidance as the decisive driver of Alphabet's immediate earnings reaction. A large spending increase would hurt the shares, whereas modest spending increases combined with strong beats would support upside.
Key Arguments
- He expects beats on revenue, earnings per share, and guidance.
- Higher memory prices could force increased capital spending.
- Investors may revise 2027 expectations unfavorably if spending rises sharply.
Risks acknowledged
- Strong earnings beats and a modest capital expenditure increase could produce a positive stock reaction.
TSLATeslaThe host sees Tesla as expensive relative to deteriorating financial performance and dependent on uncertain future businesses. He prefers investing in Netflix, but does not provide a distinct absolute Tesla price or return forecast.
Key Arguments
- Revenue has stagnated while margins, operating income, and free cash flow have weakened.
- The valuation multiple has risen despite weaker financial performance.
- He views robotaxis and robots as speculative promises and criticizes earlier solar, semi-truck, and mass-market ambitions.
Risks acknowledged
- Tesla previously generated substantial profits for the host.
- An exciting future-business narrative can support a high valuation.
AXPAmerican ExpressThe host expects American Express to beat revenue, earnings, and guidance expectations. His confidence rests on recurring membership fees and affluent customers, but he does not explicitly predict the stock's earnings reaction.
Key Arguments
- Annual card fees create recurring revenue.
- Affluent customers with higher credit scores support consistent spending.
- Its prominence in Berkshire Hathaway's holdings reinforces his confidence.
NOWServiceNowThe host expects revenue and earnings beats but is uncertain about guidance because AI products may compete for enterprise budgets. He describes a conditional downside scenario in which disappointing guidance and hostile analyst questioning compound pressure on the shares.
Key Arguments
- Enterprise spending and attention may shift toward Anthropic and other AI offerings.
- Weak guidance could provoke aggressive analyst questions.
- A defensive conference call could worsen an initial negative stock reaction.
Risks acknowledged
- He expects a revenue and earnings beat.
- His investment perspective extends several years beyond one earnings report.
- Weak guidance and the illustrated selloff are scenarios rather than established outcomes.
Predictions (1)
SPCXSpaceX Class AThe host expects SpaceX to fall substantially below its approximately $119 quoted price as an extreme valuation meets insider unlocks and weak buying support. He expects a bottom most likely in the first half of 2027, with a realistic price range of roughly $55–$72.50 and a worse-case estimate near $45.
Key Arguments
- He considers the sales multiple extreme relative to other richly valued growth companies.
- He expects no near-term profitability and views ambitious space projects as distant.
- Upcoming insider unlocks could create selling pressure and anticipatory fear.
- Recent favorable news has failed to reverse the downtrend.
Risks acknowledged
- Starlink is a strong business, and the host is positive about xAI's long-term prospects.
- Speculative enthusiasm around announcements could support the stock unexpectedly.
- He does not expect Musk personally to sell heavily.
- He declines to place a bearish trade despite his forecast.
- He acknowledges that outcomes below his worst-case estimate remain possible.
Predictions (4)
CRMSalesforceSalesforce is mentioned as a possible competitor for enterprise budgets increasingly directed toward AI products. This is an operational competitive concern without an explicit price or investment-return prediction.
Key Arguments
- Enterprise customers may prioritize Anthropic or other advanced AI products over traditional software offerings.
Risks acknowledged
- The host presents this as uncertainty rather than a confirmed spending shift.
The host is likely to begin and gradually build an Occidental position around a five-year total-return thesis. He expects dividends and potential share appreciation to offer an attractive chance of doubling his money, with larger conditional upside from exceptionally high oil prices and successful carbon capture.
Key Arguments
- The company has experienced a multiyear downcycle.
- Higher oil prices could disproportionately increase profits and free cash flow.
- Debt reduction could enable larger dividends and buybacks.
- Industry underinvestment, geopolitical tensions, and eventual reserve replenishment could support oil.
- Carbon capture offers a second potential source of upside.
Risks acknowledged
- Oil and gas production is cyclical.
- Falling commodity prices could rapidly reduce profits.
- Sustained extremely low oil prices could create severe financial stress.
- Carbon capture may fail to develop commercially.
- The host is not a carbon capture expert.
- Fivefold or tenfold returns are outlier scenarios rather than his base case.
Predictions (7)
PLTRPalantir TechnologiesThe host interprets Alex Karp's defensive interview as a warning that enterprise attention and budgets may shift toward competing AI tools. Palantir also serves as an example of rapid historical growth-stock appreciation and a valuation comparison, without a new share-price call.
Key Arguments
- Karp's tone increased the host's concern about AI competition for software budgets.
- Palantir's historical rally illustrates how quickly growth-stock entry opportunities can disappear.
- Its sales multiple is below the multiple attributed to SpaceX.
Risks acknowledged
- Historical price appreciation does not establish a new forward-looking forecast.
Hedges & Caveats
- Short-term earnings reactions do not determine the success of investments held for several years.
- Occidental is cyclical and exposed to falling oil and natural gas prices; the host has not yet established the proposed position.
- Carbon capture adoption and exceptionally high oil prices are uncertain.
- The host will not short or otherwise bet on his SpaceX downside forecast.
- SpaceX could attract renewed speculative buying around exciting announcements.
- Tesla criticism primarily concerns valuation and execution rather than an explicit absolute share-price forecast.