Behind the video
Tesla Stock $295; What About SpaceX Earnings
Overall Thesis
Discussion of recent earnings results for Meta and Microsoft amid volatile market conditions, with commentary on Tesla and SpaceX stock movements.
Narratives
METAMeta PlatformsMeta beat on revenue but missed on profitability and other metrics, and the stock fell roughly 11% after hours. The speakers note capex guidance was raised (bottom of the range moved up) while 2027 capex specifics were withheld, which they suggest added to investor unease.
Key Arguments
- Beat on revenue but missed on profit and other metrics
- Narrowed capex range by raising the bottom, effectively guiding higher spend
- Did not give specific 2027 capex guidance, adding uncertainty
Risks acknowledged
- Free cash flow remained positive (~$787 million) despite the miss
TSLATeslaThe speakers note Tesla has fallen into the low $200s-$300 range but argue the fundamentals haven't changed, framing the pullback as a technical/sentiment issue rather than a business problem. They expect an eventual rebound once broader market sentiment shifts, pointing to AI, robotaxi, Optimus, and a planned Starlink direct-to-cell partnership as long-term catalysts.
Key Arguments
- Nothing has changed in the fundamentals despite the stock falling into the 200s
- AI is improving fast and could suddenly become a visible catalyst for Tesla similar to past sector shifts
- Robotaxi and Optimus reveals could unlock major AI-related value that most investors aren't pricing in
- Tesla plans to integrate Starlink direct-to-cell hardware into Cybercabs, superchargers, and Powerwalls
- Tesla signed ~400MW of solar/battery deals as a hedge against natural gas price spikes
Risks acknowledged
- Most investors don't yet understand the AI upside tied to robotaxi/Optimus
- Solar/hedge deals won't be operational until 2028-2029
Predictions (1)
"there's plenty of reason that when people decide to buy the down the thing that cheap or whatever that they're looking at and take another look and saying okay things aren't as bad as we feared."
MSFTMicrosoftMicrosoft reported strong results with Azure growth outperforming expectations, and shares rose about 8% after hours, though the speakers note this only partially offsets a prior ~25% decline from all-time highs. They view Microsoft's cloud strength as a key positive despite its exposure to the broader 'software play' narrative.
Key Arguments
- Azure grew 43% versus expectations of 40%
- Stock rose ~8% in after-hours trading following the report
- Still viewed as roughly 25% below all-time highs despite the bounce
Risks acknowledged
- Microsoft is being lumped in with 'software play' concerns affecting sentiment
Hedges & Caveats
- Hosts acknowledge extreme market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty (Iran conflict)
- Discussion of technical support levels (295, 275) presented as chart analysis, not price predictions
- Incomplete transcript limits full context of any forward-looking statements
- SpaceX earnings discussion mentioned in title but not detailed in provided transcript