Michael Tyler on SPX

“So, that's a pretty good recipe for a rally into year-end and even 2027 once you get through earnings, the Fed, November 3rd midterms, and whatever happens with the war with Iran.”

“I'm definitely in the camp of we are likely to have a year-end rally from here.”

“And as long as energy infrastructure is not targeted, which I don't think it would be, stocks are going to rip on that.”

“I, you know, I think with the sequence of catalyst that we have in front of us, we need to be preparing for the markets to move higher, not lower over the next couple of weeks.”

“I think a little bit of a chase could actually begin into 2027, especially if the seasonals uh do hold up and we it if it starts to look like we're going to have a 9 to 10 month rally, that could really make the next like 6 months or so look pretty vertical for the markets.”

“But by mid to late next week, I think the markets are firmly going to be moving higher from here.”

“So when I put all of that together, over the next couple of weeks, you could actually see a pretty parabolic move to the upside in the markets versus the downside.”

“I think we are setting up for a pretty parabolic move into the end of this year that could extend well into 2027, especially if the war with Iran did like actually come to a definitive end.”

“If the AI trade continues to weaken, the indexes are going to get punished, but the internals of the markets might actually do well.”

“actually think it's a good thing that money is leaving the overcrowded AI trade and heading into other areas of the markets. Even though that does hurt the index, that is going to, you know, push the indexes lower. That to me looks healthy.”

“Now, again, I'm expecting good earnings across the AI spectrum, so I think in the near term, that probably sends the Nasdaq higher, that sends the S&P higher.”

“I think SpaceX earnings are going to be good tomorrow, that could continue this uh bit of a rally that you started today. I would expect that to continue tomorrow, especially in after hours and then into your trading day on Wednesday.”

“And I think personally we are most likely to get a rally into the end of this year. If the war with Iran starts up again, then that's obviously going to be a problem and that rally probably will not happen.”

“And once we get to November 3rd, then I think you get the midterm rally. Um post midterm rally. That's that's really because of hedges that get taken off the marketplace.”

“Vice versa, if Kevin Walsh is like, "Yeah, we got a problem. We need to act immediately." You know, stocks are going to sell off on that.”

“And if Kevin Walsh is more on the let's wait and see, you know, maybe we got some discouraging inflation numbers, but we should kind of pause here or just see what happens. That could spark a bit of a broadening rally.”

“These are reasons that I am bullish for the month of October, that I'm bullish into the end of this this year, assuming the war with Iran does not start up again.”

“And I am bullish on 2027 and I have also said that I'm bullish on the month of October.”

“And again, if the panic continues in AI stocks, I expect the market will continue to sell off, right? Just because the S&P and the Nasdaq are basically AI indexes”

“Like, would the NASDAQ and the S&P go up a lot if CPI comes in lower than expected? Probably.”

“So, if AI hardware does poorly, the indexes are going to do poorly next year.”

“I'm bullish from now into the end of the year until the Iran war starts up again.”

“After November 3rd that you know, midterm volatility or or nervousness is going to be gone and you likely see the markets move higher after that.”

“I'm bullish. I'm bullish for the month of October.”

“if the AI trade does stumble a little bit, the index could trade sideways even if the average stock skyrockets.”

“I think over the next 30 days or so, you could have quite a strong rally in the markets, assuming CPI comes in low, which is my expectation. Assuming we don't have any kind of black swan events or the war with Iran doesn't start up again.”

“I think over the next 12 to 24 months we could be in the one of the strongest market rallies we have ever seen”

“I think really over the next 30 days or so, even a little bit after the midterms, we're set up to move higher in the markets.”

“And honestly, you probably just need a good CPI report um to lower bond yields quite a bit and send stocks much higher in this week ahead.”

“And I think ultimately if the war with Iran ends, hopefully at some point over the next 12 months, that is the biggest problem we have. And once that happens, we are set up for one of, if not the strongest rallies we have ever seen.”

“either way, I think 2027 is going to be a very strong year for the markets”

“Now, after we get through November 3rd, you probably get a post-midterm rally, at least for like a week or two.”

“I've made the argument on this channel that I think in the month of October, you're going to rally. Okay? Okay, I think stocks are going to rally quite a lot just to be honest with you.”

“But either which way the cookie crumbles, I think 2027 set up to be a strong year.”

“Now, ultimately, if the war with Iran ends with some kind of deal and it does not start up again, I think that sets us up for a very strong end of the year rally and one of the strongest rallies of 2027.”

“I think we have a bit of a sweet spot to rally here in the markets in the month of October.”

“if the war with Iran ends, dude, we are set up for the biggest rally you have ever seen in your lifetime. But we don't know if that's going to happen.”

“So, Treasury yields falling is going to create a broad market rally, but could actually slow down the indexes from rising a little bit.”

“It could set us up for still a good 2027, assuming the war with Iran ends.”

“If it starts up in mid November, then the end of this year is probably going to be pretty rough.”

“So, putting all of this together, I think October is going to be a strong month. I think even through mid November is going to be a strong month.”

“All else equal, as I've said before on this channel, I think the markets could rally in the month of October into about mid November, assuming the war with Iran does not start up again.”

“But I think the bull market ultimately lives on and I think it gets healthier from here.”

“Now, if the war with Iran starts up again and it's a prolonged conflict and oil goes back up again and we're looking at many, many Fed rate hikes, eventually that'll crack the AI trade. Eventually, that would crash the markets.”

“As long as they do well, I don't foresee some kind of major correction or crash, at least here in the near term.”

“But if the war with Iran starts up again, could it cause problems? Absolutely. Oil's going to go up. Treasury yields are going to go up. The Fed's going to need to quote unquote hike rates more. that would be a problem for the markets in which the markets are already in a very weak position”

“And then in my view, once the Iran war ends, if it does end between now and uh you know midterms or after midterms, then that's your green light to to get all bowled up again, I think, because again, the markets are so weak um under the surface. I think you'd have a broad-based rally like it would be violent to the upside in my view.”

“And once we get to November 3rd, that post midterm, you know, election rally should kick in as uh people get rid of some of those hedges, right?”

“But I'm bullish right now.”

“So all else equals just mathematically uh every 10 basis point increase in rates should translate into about 2% hit to the S&P.”

“If the war with Iran ends, great. Awesome. We're going to have one of the strongest rallies over the next 12 months we have seen ever before in our lifetime.”

“I think we're going to have a strong market between now and about mid November.”

“like if the Iran war ends, Treasury yields implode to the downside, like Fed rate hikes, that's kind of going to be taken off the table. Um, at least the three or four that we're still pricing in and the markets would likely have a very strong multimonth rally and then into 2027.”

“So I actually think October is going to be a really strong month. I think stocks are going to explode to the upside even into the midterms.”

“Now, if we see a broad-based rally in the markets because Treasury yields come down, even if a couple MAG7s trade sideways, that's still going to give you a lot of upside for the S&P and the NASDAQ from an index perspective.”

“And I continue to think if the Iran war ends, that really solves like all of the markets problems at this point. I think that sets us up for a very strong end of the year rally. And I think that sets us up for a very strong 2027.”

“I think we have a bit of a green light for a rally here over the next month or so. Then I get nervous after the midterms.”

“If the Iran war starts up again, we send a third aircraft carrier. Markets are probably going to crash, stocks are probably going to come down, treasury yields are going to go up again, we're going to price in more rate hikes.”

“I think stocks have a period of time here that they could rally quite a bit.”

“If the Iran war does end magically, miraculously, and there is no boots on the ground, there's no next wave of the Iran war, the markets are going to have a face ripper rally.”

“But if we do start bombing Iran again or put boots on the ground or something like that, mid November, I I I would think you would have some kind of market crash event mid November through December because Treasury yields are going to move higher in that scenario.”

“I think you could get a catch up in the markets and a you know the stocks that have sucked could catch a bid. Though if you're bullish right now like I am, that is your expectation.”

“I will tell you though, if the Iran war ends, that is going to set us up for one of the strongest market rallies we have ever seen in our lifetime and might ever see in our lifetime.”

“If the Iran war starts up again, that's going to feed right into bond yields, right into oil prices, right into Fed rate hikes. And that's going to be a major problem.”

“I'm like 80% um certain in my view, again, not a financial advisor, not a financial planner, come to your own conclusions as always, that we're going to have a market rally really between now and mid-November.”

“But if the war with Iran doesn't end and we go into another conflict and blah blah blah, yeah, we're going to have some pretty severe downside in the markets would would be my thought.”

“Now, if the war with Iran ends, I think the markets are are going to have a fantastic end of the year rally. I think next year is set up to be very strong.”

“And you're probably going to see more companies than not move higher after earnings.”

“So, the better part of the next month, stocks are more likely than not going to go up.”

“stocks could have a year-end crash if things go poorly.”

“what normally happens is the markets, the areas that have been selling off, they rally and they catch up to Mag 7, to AI, to the leaders. So I think that's probably what is going to happen over the next couple of months.”

“I think other AI stocks are going to give us great earnings. I think most companies are going to have really good earnings and that could be a force to help the markets broaden out a little bit.”

“And then really, you tend to kind of look like this and then rally throughout the rest of next year, at least through a you know, August, early September of 2027.”

“but as long as the bond market can chill out a little bit. I think you're going to get a catch up trade from here and see the internals of the markets get a little bit better.”

“And now that bond yields are finally chilling out, you might be able to see the average stock catch a bid here over the next couple of weeks.”

“And if we do get a catchup trade in the markets, that could cause a pretty violent move higher internally in the broadening trade.”

“But again, I am bullish right now. I have like 20 grand worth of margins. Still haven't touched that. It's been the same for like a week or two now. I'm fully positioned for the upside.”

“So, I actually look at this as a pretty good scenario right now, assuming Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia can hold up, that likely means it's inevitable that you're going to get a catch-up trade for the rest of the markets.”

“And now that we have this good economic data, good PCE report, if bond yields can chill out a little bit and come down even a little bit. You're going to spark a very aggressive broad market rally here. And the year-end rally is probably coming at this point. Assuming treasuries can chill the F out for 3 days.”

“But again, I do think the markets could actually rally here in the next couple of weeks, assuming bond yields come back down again, assuming this short squeeze in the bond market comes to an end, and treasury yields correct themselves, which is kind of my view at this point.”

“If the straight of vermoose open, there were some kind of deal done to end the war. That would instantly, I believe, start a year-end rally.”

“And unfortunately, if we don't get that good news, bonds are going to continue to be under pressure and eventually it's going to drag the markets down.”

“I think we are most likely going to have a year-end rally.”

“Number one, the war with Iran could end if the straight of moose opened. That would bring down oil. That would relieve volatility. that would send bond yields cratering lower and the markets would rally big time.”

“You need something positive to happen in the war with Iran or stocks, my friend. they're going to crash. There is almost no way around it at this point.”

“If the AI narrative begins to crack, if the war with Iran does not end, if the data comes in good or god forbid CPI comes in high, like it could be a pretty violent crash.”

“And of course, if Treasury yields continue to climb this week, that's going to put a lot of pressure on the markets.”

“If the war with Iran truly does not end and Trump is being honest with his, you know, expectation to begin bombing Iran again after the midterms, you're more likely going to have a postmidterm crash, a November, December market crash than some kind of postmidterm rally.”

“And I think a lot of people are expecting some kind of, you know, postmidterm rally. Um, myself included. I think that's probably most likely at this point.”

“When will the markets crash? Well, when something breaks. In my opinion, this could be before New Year's.”

“If the AI trade goes, you could see a crash within days, like a couple of days, and you could be down 10, 15, 20%.”

“If that is suspected to go away and AI becomes a show me story in a high rate environment, this could cause a 20 plus% crash pretty easily.”

“If that jobs report is really bad, stocks are going to rip on that.”

“the stock market is going to crash.”

“if the war with Iran does not end, the markets will not have a year-end rally. That's going to be a very difficult wall to climb if the war with Iran does not end.”

“And if something positive does happen, if the war with Iran does end, if the inverse short squeeze in the bond market ends, the forced liquidations, what are you going to see? Yes, you're going to see the S&P and the NASDAQ go up quite a bit next week.”

“You know, if those things happen, then the markets are probably going to come under some pressure and that's going to start affecting Tesla more.”

“Now I do think we're getting close to peak yield and I do think that could actually spark a rally in the markets but you know we we're going to have to see how this plays out in the coming days.”

“If the war with Iran ends, that's going to be the best case scenario, right?”

“I don't think the markets will be higher from here if we get four or five rate hikes.”

“but then it gets ugly Thursday and Friday.”

“I think tomorrow after the Fed meeting, stocks probably rally a little bit”

“I think we are setting up for one of the strongest 2027s, one of the strongest years we've ever seen in the stock market.”

“If the Iran war ended tonight, tomorrow stocks are going to rip higher. Treasury yields are going to plummet, oil's going to plummet.”

“You want to be focused on what happens after the midterms, this 9 to 10 month rally that you tend to see.”

“Stocks during this premidterm correction in September, they tend to bottom on September 30th historically. So, come even October, you should begin to see a recovery even if we have a correction.”

“you really want to be positioning for the post midterm rally that you historically see for about 9 to 10 months after the midterms.”

“I don't think you have to see some kind of grandiose correction like Tom Lee is calling for.”

“fall 2 to 7% wouldn't surprise me. Anything above 7% would would kind of surprise me.”

“I think bottom line is, over the next 5 to 6 months, heading into the midterms, you are likely going to see some kind of downside for the market. Between 2 and 5% is my expectation.”