Michael Tyler on TLT

The host expects oversold long-duration Treasury bonds to bounce, potentially easing the pressure from rising yields. He warns that renewed conflict with Iran could instead push bonds lower and yields higher.

The host believes TLT has probably bottomed and Treasury yields have peaked as Treasury buybacks begin easing selling pressure. He expects attractive yields to draw buyers once downward bond momentum stops, potentially supporting a broader equity rally.

The host expects TLT to find a bottom soon and rebound following an extreme sell-off. Its deeply oversold RSI supports the thesis, although widespread expectations of a rebound may delay it.

The host argues that bond prices have fallen too quickly because of hedging and forced liquidation rather than a fundamental change. He expects oversold bonds to rebound, lowering yields and supporting equities.

The host identifies TLT as oversold and near a trend line associated with earlier rebounds. He nevertheless expects continued pressure without favorable external news, making a recovery conditional rather than assured.

The host notes 10-year Treasury yields declined today alongside falling oil prices and war de-escalation hopes, tying bond market moves to Fed policy expectations, but does not offer a specific forward call on yields or TLT price.

The host argues 10-year Treasury yields are breaking out to a 19-year high near 5% and that nothing the Treasury is doing is working to bring yields down, implying continued pressure on long-duration bond prices. He says only an economic crack, an AI trade slowdown, or an end to the Iran war could bring yields down.

The host expects long-term Treasury yields to decline after an anticipated Fed rate hike on Wednesday, which would imply bond price strength, though he frames this within a broader uncertain rate-hiking cycle narrative.

The speaker discusses rising 10-year Treasury yields and government bond buybacks as signs of stress in the bond market, implying downward pressure on long-duration bond funds like TLT, though he does not name TLT directly or give a specific price target.

The speaker notes that Treasury yields rose sharply after Kevin Warsh's hawkish-leaning comments, with the 10-year yield up over five basis points to 4.724% and the 2-year yield jumping to 4.32%, implying bond prices are under pressure.

The host expects long-term Treasury yields to rise due to renewed Canada tariffs and lingering inflation concerns, which implies falling long-duration bond prices. He frames this as a headwind for both bonds and equities.

The host explains that the Treasury's decision to double its 30-year bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation is aimed at stabilizing the long end of the yield curve, which pushed 30-year yields down about 9.5 basis points on the day. He frames this as a positive development after 30-year yields hit a 19-year high, though he does not give a specific forward price target for bonds.