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Strategy (MSTR)

How the view evolved

Jo Bhakdi on MSTR

Every thesis Jo Bhakdi has voiced on MSTR — 16 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
MSTRStrategy
NeutralWhy Earnings Tsunami DESTROYS AMZN, INTC, AMD And Other AI StocksOct 29, 2026
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The host considers Strategy's earnings uneventful and its reported move small for the stock. He agrees with a viewer's preference for SpaceX as a safer long-term investment with more upside, without predicting an absolute decline in Strategy.

Key arguments

  • He says the earnings contained nothing special.
  • He treats the approximately 2.7% move as routine.
  • He prefers SpaceX on relative safety and upside.

Risks acknowledged

  • Relative preference for SpaceX does not establish negative absolute returns for Strategy.
BullishSpaceX Earnings Preview: What Matters MOSTOct 20, 2026
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The host considers Strategy attractively valued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and describes a recent selloff as a buying opportunity. His favorable investment recommendation is explicitly conditional on an investor believing in Bitcoin.

Key arguments

  • He argues that a recent 10% share decline was unjustified because Bitcoin did not meaningfully move.
  • He describes the shares as cheap relative to their Bitcoin holdings.
  • He reports that Strategy is one of his larger positions.

Risks acknowledged

  • The investment only makes sense for investors who believe in Bitcoin.
  • He supplies no price target or return deadline.
Strongly BullishCan SpaceX, Tesla And Meta Earnings SAVE The Stock Market?Oct 18, 2026
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The host regards Strategy's sharp sell-off as excessive relative to Bitcoin's smaller decline. He explicitly recommends buying, arguing that its premium to Bitcoin holdings is minimal and potential index-related selling is manageable.

Key arguments

  • The transcript cites a roughly 9.5% share decline against a roughly 1% Bitcoin decline.
  • The host estimates the shares trade at about 1.09 times Bitcoin holdings.
  • He considers the cited $1.8 billion potential index-related sale small relative to trading volume.

Risks acknowledged

  • Potential index removal creates mechanical selling pressure.
  • The investment remains tied to Bitcoin holdings.
BullishWhy SpaceX Stock Will DROP MORE This WeekOct 7, 2026
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The host recommends Strategy over Bitcoin index funds as a bullish Bitcoin proxy. He expects potential multiple expansion to provide additional upside when Bitcoin rises.

Key arguments

  • Strategy can benefit from Bitcoin appreciation and an expanding valuation multiple.
  • He considers it a well-positioned Bitcoin proxy.
  • He explicitly prefers it to Bitcoin index funds.

Risks acknowledged

  • Bitcoin is a tricky asset.
  • Direct Bitcoin ownership can make sense for very long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts.
  • Strategy was his largest monetary loser on the day discussed.
BullishWhy SpaceX Stock Is SKYROCKETINGOct 5, 2026
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The host uses Strategy as a Bitcoin-equivalent equity holding and identifies it as approximately his third-largest position. His positive view rests on cryptocurrency diversification and an anticipated new bull cycle.

Key arguments

  • Provides the host's preferred equity exposure to Bitcoin.
  • The host believes cryptocurrency is entering its next bull cycle.
  • The host reports a substantial existing position.
BullishWill Tesla Deliveries CRASH The Stock Tmw?Oct 2, 2026
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The host expects Strategy's valuation multiple to expand alongside the Bitcoin bull cycle. This is a directional forecast without a stock-price target or precise deadline.

Key arguments

  • The host expects renewed Bitcoin appreciation.
  • He anticipates additional valuation upside for Strategy beyond the underlying Bitcoin move.

Risks acknowledged

  • The associated Bitcoin outlook is expressed partly in possibility language.
  • He supplies no quantified multiple or stock-price objective.
BullishWhy Elon Musk Says Economic Growth Will DOUBLE in 2027Sep 18, 2026
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The host mentions MicroStrategy briefly as a profitable position on a strong trading day tied to Bitcoin's move, calling it a good stock to hold currently without giving a specific price target.

Key arguments

  • Described as 'a good stock to have right now' due to a strong single-day move tied to Bitcoin
BullishLIVE: Iran Update and Tesla Stock StrategyApr 13, 2026
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MicroStrategy is attractive at current levels with only 11% premium over Bitcoin holdings, which is low historically. The speaker likes it as a concentrated AI and blockchain exposure play, though not as much as Tesla.

Key arguments

  • Low 1.11 multiplier over Bitcoin holdings
  • People not bullish on it currently which creates opportunity
  • Double bet on Bitcoin and the multiplier expansion
  • Biggest holder of Bitcoin with 4% of all Bitcoin
  • Good for concentrated blockchain exposure

Risks acknowledged

  • Dependent on Bitcoin which is harder to predict tactically
  • Suffered more than Bitcoin in recent decline
BullishHow to PROTECT Our Tesla Stock Portfolio From THE WORST (Iran Update!)Apr 7, 2026
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MicroStrategy serves as a good proxy for Bitcoin exposure and is being added to the speaker's Pioneer Alpha fund. The stock is considered attractive due to premium contraction despite being a treasury company holding Bitcoin.

Key arguments

  • Good proxy for Bitcoin exposure
  • Treasury company holding Bitcoin
  • Premium contraction makes it attractive
  • Adding to Pioneer Alpha portfolio

Risks acknowledged

  • Went down more than Bitcoin due to confidence loss
  • Premium contraction in the stock
BullishWhy Bitcoin and $MSTR are CRASHING again?Mar 21, 2026
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MicroStrategy is an attractive leveraged play on Bitcoin, currently trading at 1.19x its Bitcoin reserves compared to historical premiums of 1.6x. The speaker is adding a position via short puts, viewing it as the primary vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure.

Key arguments

  • Trading at attractive 1.19x MNAV vs historical 1.6x premium
  • Leveraged exposure to Bitcoin with amplified upside potential
  • Primary vehicle for institutional Bitcoin investment
  • Michael Saylor recently raised capital to buy more Bitcoin
  • If Bitcoin goes up 10%, MSTR goes up more than 10%

Risks acknowledged

  • Directly tied to Bitcoin performance - if Bitcoin falls, MSTR falls
  • Volatile in current market conditions
BullishCrypto CRASH: Time To BUY Bitcoin and MSTR?Feb 5, 2026
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MicroStrategy is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin play with strong downside protection. The company has $2.2 billion in cash reserves providing 2.5 years of coverage for preferred dividends and interest payments, making it safe even in a prolonged crypto winter. With the MNAV ratio now at 1.08 (close to 1), the premium has compressed significantly, offering attractive upside potential when Bitcoin recovers.

Key arguments

  • Strong financial cushion with 2.5 years of cash reserves for obligations
  • MNAV ratio compressed to 1.08, eliminating most premium risk
  • Leveraged upside to Bitcoin recovery with potential for MNAV expansion back to 1.5
  • Bitcoin fundamentals remain intact with supply constraints and inflationary macro environment

Risks acknowledged

  • Risk of prolonged crypto winter lasting beyond 2.5 years
  • Technical chart shows potential for further downside to $30,000 Bitcoin
  • High volatility and leverage amplify losses during downturns
BullishWhy THIS STRATEGY Outperformed Tesla Stock by over 30%Dec 22, 2025
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MicroStrategy is held as part of the AGI-era crypto-adjacent basket, with the host also considering Bitmine as a potential future addition.

Key arguments

  • MicroStrategy is the host's current crypto-space conviction name
  • Bitmine may be added in the future but not yet
BullishWhy MSTR Stock Is a SCREAMING BUY for Me (Bitcoin Reversal!)Nov 20, 2025
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MSTR is now attractive after dropping 54% and having its mNAV collapse to 1.21, offering leveraged Bitcoin exposure at a reasonable premium. Bhakdi views it as the most reliable crypto treasury company and a green light for investors without Bitcoin exposure. He warns against buying when mNAV is above 1.3 and recommends treating MSTR and Bitcoin as the same bucket rather than stacking exposure.

Key arguments

  • MSTR's mNAV has collapsed from ~1.6 to 1.21, making the premium over Bitcoin NAV reasonable
  • MSTR is down 54% while Bitcoin is only down 13% over six months, showing the leverage effect in reverse is now done
  • Market cap of 54 billion vs 58.5 billion in Bitcoin holdings means buyers get slight discount to BTC NAV after accounting for 8 billion debt
  • If Bitcoin enters a bull run, MSTR amplifies gains through both Bitcoin price appreciation and mNAV expansion
  • Institutions that cannot buy crypto directly can buy MSTR as a US publicly traded equity, supporting persistent mNAV premium

Risks acknowledged

  • Michael Sailor could further issue preferred shares which would affect valuation
  • The mNAV could still drop to 1.1 though Bhakdi doubts it
  • If you already own Bitcoin, don't stack MSTR on top - treat them as the same bucket
BullishThe Complete Analysis of Microstrategy and its New Preferred Stocks - With Cern Basher and Jo BhakdiSep 27, 2025
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Strategy's preferred-stock issuance is genuine leverage with minimal implosion risk, giving the common stock a structural path to outperform Bitcoin over multi-year cycles as leverage expands from roughly 20% today toward 30-50% as convertibles roll off.

Key arguments

  • Implosion threshold requires roughly 87-88% Bitcoin drawdown, considered unlikely given current Bitcoin maturity.
  • Preferred stocks (STRF, STRC, STRD, STRK) are permanent capital with no maturity, avoiding classic debt risk.
  • Sailor is effectively constructing a yield curve for Bitcoin, addressable-market of roughly $200T across comparable asset classes.
  • MNAV premium and expanded leverage post-converts can drive MSTR above BTC returns over a full Bitcoin cycle.
  • Cern assigns high conviction MSTR outperforms BTC over any four-year window.

Risks acknowledged

  • MNAV premium could compress toward 1.0 and offset leverage benefit.
  • Complex capital structure creates risk of operational or execution mistakes.
  • MSTR has underperformed BTC year-to-date.
  • Sailor has pledged never to sell Bitcoin, reducing flexibility in a downturn.
NeutralBitcoin MSTR Implosion RiskSep 18, 2025
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MSTR is not a crazy investment and has low implosion risk, but a 40% premium over its Bitcoin per share makes it unattractive versus buying BTC directly unless you are an institution.

Key arguments

  • 95B market cap is backed by roughly 68B in Bitcoin, implying 241 of BTC per share vs 334 share price.
  • Convertible debt is 8% of market cap with unusually favorable terms.
  • Implosion would require Bitcoin to fall to roughly 13,000, which host sees as unlikely.
  • Long-term the MNAV premium should compress toward the 8% leverage level, implying MSTR underperforms BTC.
  • MSTR does drive Bitcoin demand via the treasury-company trend (Metaplanet, etc.).

Risks acknowledged

  • Institutional investors that cannot hold Bitcoin directly benefit from MSTR as an exchange-listed proxy.
  • Embedded 8% leverage provides upside participation in Bitcoin rallies.
  • MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin if the premium expands, though not sustainable long-term.